Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.
Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.
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DOI：
10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
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发表时间：
2015-12-09
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
NTD Modelling Consortium
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hollingsworth TD;Adams ER;Anderson RM;Atkins K;Bartsch S;Basáñez MG;Behrend M;Blok DJ;Chapman LA;Coffeng L;Courtenay O;Crump RE;de Vlas SJ;Dobson A;Dyson L;Farkas H;Galvani AP;Gambhir M;Gurarie D;Irvine MA;Jervis S;Keeling MJ;Kelly-Hope L;King C;Lee BY;Le Rutte EA;Lietman TM;Ndeffo-Mbah M;Medley GF;Michael E;Pandey A;Peterson JK;Pinsent A;Porco TC;Richardus JH;Reimer L;Rock KS;Singh BK;Stolk W;Swaminathan S;Torr SJ;Townsend J;Truscott J;Walker M;Zoueva A;NTD Modelling Consortium
定量分析和数学模型是制定控制或消除疾病战略的有用工具。目前，迫切需要开发这些工具，为政策提供信息，以实现2020年被忽视的热带病目标。在本文中，我们给出了一个新的模型为基础的分析，旨在解决关键问题的动力学的传播和控制的9 NTDs：恰加斯病，内脏利什曼病，人类非洲锥虫病，麻风病，土壤传播的蠕虫，血吸虫病，淋巴丝虫病，盘尾丝虫病和沙眼。在这些分析中，有几个共同的主题引起了共鸣，包括：流行病学背景对干预措施成功的重要性;针对感染或再感染风险最高的群体;以及接触那些没有获得干预措施并可能成为感染宿主的人群。研究结果还突出表明，在没有实现真正消除的情况下，将消除作为一个公共卫生问题来维持是一项挑战。这些模型阐明了可能对疾病持续存在贡献最大的因素，并讨论了最终实现真正消除的要求（如果可能的话）。总的来说，这一收集提出了新的分析，为当前的控制举措提供信息。这些论文形成了一个基础，在此基础上，模型的进一步发展和对各种数据集的更严格验证可以帮助提供更详细的建议。目前，随着世界准备为到2020年控制或消除被忽视的热带病做最后的努力，这些模型的预测正在被考虑之中。
Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.