Optimal vaccination schemes for epidemics among a population of households, with application to variola minor in Brazil
Optimal vaccination schemes for epidemics among a population of households, with application to variola minor in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1177/0962280206071643
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Lyne, Owen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ball, Frank;Lyne, Owen
本文研究了传染病在一个家庭社区中传播的随机模型，其中个体在家庭中均匀混合，此外，在整个人口中以低得多的速度均匀混合。这种两级混合结构对流行病的阈值行为具有重要意义，因此，对控制疫情的疫苗接种策略的有效性和最佳疫苗接种方案的形式都具有重要意义。通过对最简单和研究最多的病例，即单一型SIR的统一处理，简要介绍了在这种情况下的最佳疫苗接种方案（sensitive-> infective -> removed）传染性的。一个繁殖数R*（，），它决定了最初的感染痕迹是否会引起大流行，的推导和R* 接种计划的效果进行了研究，使用疫苗行动的一般模型。特别是，最佳的疫苗接种计划，减少R* 的阈值之一，最小的疫苗接种覆盖率被认为是。该理论说明了应用程序的天花小爆发在圣保罗，这与其他例子一起，是用来突出与疫苗接种计划的关键问题的数据。
This paper is concerned with stochastic models for the spread of an epidemic among a community of households, in which individuals mix uniformly within households and, in addition, uniformly at a much lower rate within the Population at large. This two-level mixing structure has important implications for the threshold behaviour of the epidemic and, consequently, for both the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for controlling an outbreak and the form of optimal vaccination schemes. A brief introduction to optimal vaccination schemes in this setting is provided by presenting a unified treatment of the simplest and most-studied case, viz. the single-type SIR (susceptible -> infective -> removed) epidemic.A reproduction number R*(,) which determines whether a trace of initial infection can give rise to a major epidemic, is derived and the effect of a vaccination scheme on R* is studied using a general model for vaccine action. In particular, optimal vaccination schemes which reduce R* to its threshold value of one with minimum vaccination coverage are considered. The theory is illustrated by application to data on a variola minor outbreak in Sao Paulo, which, together with other examples, is used to highlight key issues related to vaccination schemes.