Incumbency Advantages in the Canadian Parliament (Les Avantages De L’Élu En Place Dans Les Élections AU Parlement Du Canada)
Incumbency Advantages in the Canadian Parliament (Les Avantages De L’Élu En Place Dans Les Élections AU Parlement Du Canada)
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加拿大议会在职优势 (Les Avantages De L’Élu En Place Dans Les Élections AU Parlement Du Canada)
DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-5982.2012.01739.x
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Rekkas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chad Kendall;M. Rekkas
我们采用回归不连续的方法来确定在职优势在加拿大议会，发现在职者享有9.4-11.2%的概率增加赢得了非在职者。由于存在多个政党，在选票份额方面的现任优势并不总是转化为获胜概率的增加，因为现任者不一定从其最接近的对手那里获得选票。此外，在战略退出不是问题的假设下，我们能够将在职优势分为政党在职和个人候选人在职两部分，发现优势几乎完全是由于个人。
We apply a regression discontinuity approach to determine incumbency advantages in the Canadian Parliament, finding that incumbents enjoy a 9.4-11.2% increased probability of winning over non-incumbents. Owing to the presence of multiple parties, an incumbency advantage in terms of vote share does not always translate to an increased probability of winning, because incumbents do not necessarily obtain votes from their closest opponent. Also, under the assumption that strategic exit is not an issue, we are able to split the incumbency advantage into party incumbency and individual candidate incumbency components, finding that the advantage is almost entirely due to the individual.