Characterization of acceptable risk for debris flows in China: Comparison in debris-flow prone areas and nonprone areas
Characterization of acceptable risk for debris flows in China: Comparison in debris-flow prone areas and nonprone areas
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101405
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
C. Miao;Xilin Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Miao;Xilin Liu
在泥石流易发地区和非泥石流易发地区，人们对泥石流风险的看法可能不同。对不同地区的人口风险共识进行调查，可以为泥石流灾害的可接受风险标准提供高质量的技术分析。在本研究中，设计了五个指标(受灾人数、死亡人数、死亡率、个人直接经济损失和总直接经济损失)来确定公众可接受的泥石流灾害风险水平，并利用五个因素(年龄、性别、教育水平、职业和收入)确定了影响泥石流灾害可接受风险的公众人口特征。分别在泥石流易发地区和非易发地区进行了问卷调查。共回收有效样本823份，其中泥石流易发区回收问卷459份，泥石流非易发区回收问卷364份。经统计对比分析，受灾人数可接受标准为百人，死亡人数为1人，死亡率为5×10~−/年，个人直接经济损失为1,000元，总直接经济损失为1×10~5元。年龄和性别在可接受的泥石流灾害风险水平上表现出几乎相同的特征，而教育水平、职业和收入在两个研究领域表现出差异，这是由于经济发展不平衡、风险认知不同和个人财富不同造成的。
People's perception of debris-flow risk may be different in debris-flow prone and nonprone areas. Investigation of population risk consensus in different regions may provide a high-quality technical analysis for the acceptable risk criteria of debris-flow disasters. For this study, five indicators (disaster-affected toll, death toll, death rate, personal direct economic loss, and total direct economic loss) were designed to determine the acceptable risk level of debris-flow disasters for the public, and the demographic characteristics of the public affecting the acceptable risk of debris-flow disasters were identified using five factors (age, sex, educational level, occupation, and income). Questionnaire surveys were conducted in debris-flow prone and nonprone areas, respectively. A total of 823 valid samples were obtained, among them, 459 questionnaires were collected in debris-flow prone areas, and 364 questionnaires were collected in debris-flow nonprone areas. After statistical and comparative analyses, the results demonstrate that the acceptable criteria of disaster-affected toll was 100 persons, death toll was 1 person, death rate was 5 × 10−7/year, personal direct economic loss was 1000 CNY, and total direct economic loss was 1 × 105CNY. Age and sex exhibited almost the same features for the acceptable risk levels of debris-flow disasters, whereas educational level, occupation, and income displayed discrepancies in both study areas, which resulted from imbalanced economic development, discrepant risk perception, and differing personal wealth.