Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska
Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska
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DOI：
10.1002/ppp.2038
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Hinkel, Kenneth M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Benjamin M.;Arp, Christopher D.;Hinkel, Kenneth M.
位于永久冻土区的北极湖泊很容易遭受灾难性的排水。在这项研究中，我们使用美国地质调查局地形图、历史航空摄影(1955年)和陆地卫星图像(约1975年，约2000年，自2000年以来每年)重建了1955至2017年间阿拉斯加西部北极海岸平原的历史湖泊排水事件。我们确定了98个面积大于10公顷的湖泊，这些湖泊在62年的时间里部分(占面积的25%)或完全枯竭。在约30,000公里(2)的研究区域内，十年尺度的湖泊排泄率从2.0个湖泊/年(1955-1975)逐渐下降到1.6个湖泊/年(1975-2000年)和1.2个湖泊/年(2000-2017)。2000年至2017年间详细的陆地卫星趋势分析确定了2004年和2006年的两年，有一群(5个或更多)湖泊排水可能与堤岸漫顶或迎头侵蚀有关。为了识别未来潜在的湖泊排水，我们将历史湖泊排水观测与描述湖泊高程、水文连通性和邻近湖缘地形坡度的地理空间数据集结合起来，该数据集使用5米分辨率的数字表面模型开发。我们确定了约1900个湖泊，未来可能容易排水。在最近研究期间排干的20个湖泊中，85%的湖泊是在未来的湖泊排水潜力数据集中确定的。我们对历史湖泊排水规模、机制和路径的评估，以及对未来潜在湖泊排水的识别，为北极低地景观在未来几十年到几个世纪内可能如何变化和演变提供了洞察。
Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62-year period. Decadal-scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955-1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975-2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000-2017) in the ~30,000-km(2) study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5-m-resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries.