Effects of ambient population with different income levels on the spatio-temporal pattern of theft: A study based on mobile phone big data
Effects of ambient population with different income levels on the spatio-temporal pattern of theft: A study based on mobile phone big data
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cities.2023.104331
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发表时间：
2023-06
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Guangwen Song;Liang Cai;Lin Liu;Luzi Xiao;Yuhan Wu;Han Yue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guangwen Song;Liang Cai;Lin Liu;Luzi Xiao;Yuhan Wu;Han Yue
最近的研究集中在如何准确测量环境人口及其对犯罪的影响。然而，对环境种群组成的内部异质性及其时间变化的研究却很少。为了填补这些空白，我们在控制环境人口、社会混乱、犯罪产生者和吸引者等指标的情况下，在工作日和周末的整个和特定时间段内，模拟了社区层面环境人口中低收入、中等收入、中高收入和高收入所占比例的影响。结果表明，虽然周围人口的所有收入群体都参与了社区层面的盗窃，但他们的贡献并不统一。在工作日和周末的不同时段，没有单一的收入群体总是预测盗窃。此外，每个收入群体的影响程度随时间而波动。我们的研究结果强调了环境人口的异质部分，加上动态的人类流动模式，以微妙而关键的方式构建了犯罪三角的收敛——有动机的罪犯、潜在目标和监护。
Recent studies focus on how to accurately measure ambient population and its effects on crimes. However, limited attention has been paid to the internal heterogeneity of ambient population composition and its temporal variation. To fill these gaps, controlling for indicators of ambient population, social disorganization, crime generators and attractors, we model the effects of the share of low income, middle income, upper-middle income and high income of ambient population at the community level in the whole and specific time periods on weekdays and weekends. Results suggest that while all income groups of the ambient population contribute to theft at the community level, their contributions are not uniform. At different periods of both weekdays and weekends, there is no single income group that consistently predicts theft. Furthermore, the magnitude of the impact of each income group fluctuates with time. Our results highlight the heterogeneous segments of the ambient population, coupled with the dynamic human mobility patterns, structure the convergence of the crime triangle – motivated offenders, potential targets, and guardianship – in nuanced yet crucial ways.