Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories
Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.1001289
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Liu, Jing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pedersen, Jon;Liu, Jing
背景资料：根据人口与健康调查和类似调查的完整出生记录得出的儿童死亡率估计数是用于跟踪千年发展目标4的主要数据来源，该目标旨在1990年至2015年期间将五岁以下儿童死亡率降低三分之二。根据DHS计划开始时的预期样本量，估计通常基于5年的时间段。最近的调查有更大的样本量比早期的调查，在这里，我们的目的是探索使用较短的时间段比5年的估计的好处。我们还探讨了改变基于调查前几年的估计程序的好处，即，方法和调查结果：Jackknife方差估计被用来计算207 DHS调查的标准误，以探讨在多大程度上可以使用在最近的调查中的大样本产生估计的基础上，1-，2-，3-，4-和5-y期间。我们还将调查的估计数重新计算为基于年份的估计数。我们证明，估计1- y周期确实是可能的许多最近的surveillance.Conclusions：减少偏见实现使用1- y周期和基于三年的估计是值得的，在某些情况下。特别是，它可以跟踪干旱、流行病或冲突等特定事件对儿童死亡率的影响，这是以前的估计程序所无法做到的。联合国2011年儿童死亡率估计数采纳了关于尽可能使用短期估计数和使用基于年份的估计数的建议。
Background: Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Based on the expected sample sizes when the DHS program commenced, the estimates are usually based on 5-y time periods. Recent surveys have had larger sample sizes than early surveys, and here we aimed to explore the benefits of using shorter time periods than 5 y for estimation. We also explore the benefit of changing the estimation procedure from being based on years before the survey, i.e., measured with reference to the date of the interview for each woman, to being based on calendar years.Methods and Findings: Jackknife variance estimation was used to calculate standard errors for 207 DHS surveys in order to explore to what extent the large samples in recent surveys can be used to produce estimates based on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-y periods. We also recalculated the estimates for the surveys into calendar-year-based estimates. We demonstrate that estimation for 1- y periods is indeed possible for many recent surveys.Conclusions: The reduction in bias achieved using 1- y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases. In particular, it allows tracking of the effects of particular events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on child mortality in a way not possible with previous estimation procedures. Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality.