Water Supply Damage, Recovery, and Lifeline Interaction in an Earthquake Sequence
Water Supply Damage, Recovery, and Lifeline Interaction in an Earthquake Sequence
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地震序列中的供水损坏、恢复和生命线相互作用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
X. Irias
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Porter;Serge Terentieff;Roberts McMullin;X. Irias
地震对供水系统的破坏对社会产生深远影响，可能造成数百亿美元的经济损失。22%的美国人口面临着高地震风险。计算机模型可以帮助运营商管理这种风险。在最近的研究中，科罗拉多大学（CU）开发了一个供水管道损坏和恢复的随机模型。它提供了一些新的功能：随时间变化的维修资源，多种地震危险，生命线互动，避免水力分析，没有黑盒软件。CU为东湾市政公用事业区（EBMUD）和圣何塞自来水公司运用了该模型，考虑了一个假设的大海沃德断层地震。EBMUD的工作人员对方法和结果进行了同行评审，发现它们是可信的，与过去的地震一致。EBMUD正在使用这些结果作为其弹性计划的一部分。可能的用途包括优先考虑额外的加固或冗余，确定维修优先级，估计资源需求，并通知地震演习。
Earthquake damage to water supply systems profoundly affects society, potentially costing the economy tens of billions of dollars. Water agencies for 22% of the US population face high seismic risks. Computer models can help operators manage that risk. In recent research, the University of Colorado (CU) developed a stochastic model of water-supply pipeline damage and restoration. It offers some new capabilities: timevarying repair resources, multiple earthquake perils, lifeline interaction, avoiding hydraulic analysis, and no black-box software. CU exercised the model for the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) and the San Jose Water Company, considering a hypothetical large Hayward Fault earthquake. EBMUD staff peer reviewed the methodology and results and find them credible and consistent with past earthquakes. EBMUD is using the results as part of its resilience program. Possible uses include prioritizing additional hardening or redundancy, identifying repair priorities, estimating resource needs, and informing earthquake exercises.