Scientific activity is a better predictor of nobel award chances than dietary habits and economic factors.
Scientific activity is a better predictor of nobel award chances than dietary habits and economic factors.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0092612
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Maurage P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doi H;Heeren A;Maurage P
最近的几项研究描述了营养或经济数据与许多国家获得诺贝尔奖的数量之间的强烈相关性。这让人们对诺贝尔奖获奖机会的关键预测因素这个有趣的问题有了新的认识。然而，所有这些研究都集中在单一的预测因素上，并且只基于简单的相关性和/或线性模型分析。因此，本研究的主要目的是通过同时探讨食品消费(可可、牛奶和葡萄酒)、经济变量(国内生产总值)和科学活动(发表论文的数量和研究支出)对诺贝尔奖的影响来澄清这一争论。使用了一种创新的统计分析，即分层划分，因为它使我们能够通过确定和比较每个因素的独立贡献来减少共线性问题。我们的结果清楚地表明，一个国家的诺贝尔奖数量主要可以通过其发表论文的数量和研究支出等科学成就来预测。相反，饮食习惯和全球经济变量只是次要的预测因素；这一发现与之前研究的结论相矛盾。因此，将国内生产总值的很大一部分用于研究和发表大量科学论文，将为获得诺贝尔奖创造肥沃的土壤。
Several recent studies have described a strong correlation between nutritional or economic data and the number of Nobel awards obtained across a large range of countries. This sheds new light on the intriguing question of the key predictors of Nobel awards chances. However, all these studies have been focused on a single predictor and were only based on simple correlation and/or linear model analysis. The main aim of the present study was thus to clarify this debate by simultaneously exploring the influence of food consumption (cacao, milk, and wine), economic variables (gross domestic product) and scientific activity (number of publications and research expenditure) on Nobel awards. An innovative statistical analysis, hierarchical partitioning, has been used because it enables us to reduce collinearity problems by determining and comparing the independent contribution of each factor. Our results clearly indicate that a country's number of Nobel awards can be mainly predicted by its scientific achievements such as number of publications and research expenditure. Conversely, dietary habits and the global economy variable are only minor predictors; this finding contradicts the conclusions of previous studies. Dedicating a large proportion of the GDP to research and to the publication of a high number of scientific papers would thus create fertile ground for obtaining Nobel awards.
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影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Maurage, Pierre;Heeren, Alexandre;Pesenti, Mauro
通讯作者：
Pesenti, Mauro
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Mac Nally, R
通讯作者：
Mac Nally, R
DOI：
10.1186/2041-2223-3-26
发表时间：
2012-12-11
期刊：
Investigative genetics
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kayser, Manfred
通讯作者：
Kayser, Manfred
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Mac Nally, R
通讯作者：
Mac Nally, R
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
CHEVAN, A;SUTHERLAND, M
通讯作者：
SUTHERLAND, M