Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance
Toward Predicting Changes in the Land Monsoon Rainfall a Decade in Advance
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-17-0521.1
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Bin Wang;Juan Li;M. Cane;Jian Liu;P. Webster;B. Xiang;Hyemi Kim;Jian Cao;K. Ha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bin Wang;Juan Li;M. Cane;Jian Liu;P. Webster;B. Xiang;Hyemi Kim;Jian Cao;K. Ha
预测未来几十年陆地季风降水的变化对经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。然而，目前的动力学模式在北方半球（NH）LMR（NHLMR）的年代际预测方面表现得很差。这种预测的物理基础和可预测性在很大程度上仍未得到探索。NHLMR的年代际变化反映了北半球大陆降水总量、热带大气环流和北方非洲、印度、东亚和北美区域陆地季风降水的变化。利用1901年至2014年的观测和数值实验，结果表明，NHLMR的年代际变化主要源于（i）北大西洋-南印度洋偶极子（NAID）海表温度（SST）指数测量的南极-印度洋扇区的南北半球热力对比和（ii）扩展厄尔尼诺测量的太平洋东西热力对比。南方涛动（Southern Oscillation）
AbstractPredictions of changes of the land monsoon rainfall (LMR) in the coming decades are of vital importance for successful sustainable economic development. Current dynamic models, though, have shown little skill in the decadal prediction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) LMR (NHLMR). The physical basis and predictability for such predictions remain largely unexplored. Decadal change of the NHLMR reflects changes in the total NH continental precipitation, tropical general circulation, and regional land monsoon rainfall over northern Africa, India, East Asia, and North America. Using observations from 1901 to 2014 and numerical experiments, it is shown that the decadal variability of the NHLMR is rooted primarily in (i) the north–south hemispheric thermal contrast in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector measured by the North Atlantic–south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) sea surface temperature (SST) index and (ii) an east–west thermal contrast in the Pacific measured by an extended El Nino–Southern Oscillation (...