Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe
Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe
复制标题
货币联盟与局外人——欧洲经济周期的协整/相互依赖分析
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Thygesen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Rubin;N. Thygesen
对1983-1994年期间欧盟成员国月度生产和价格指数的协整/共依赖分析表明，对周期性创新的反应在三个月后变得协调一致，并且所研究的每个国家都在三个可能阶段中的一个阶段表现出商业周期。这表明，所研究的9个国家在其主要经济系列中显示出足够程度的共同运动，使它们参与货币联盟成为可能。这就涉及到一种目前看似合理的情况，即一个核心集团符合《马斯特里赫特条约》的标准，而其他核心集团则不符合。我们的分析表明，六个假定的“内部人士”和三个可能的“外部人士”在商业周期的协调方面几乎没有区别。
A cointegration/codependence analysis of monthly production and price indices in EU member states during the 1983-1994 period yields evidence that responses to cyclical innovations become coordinated after three months, and that each of the contries studied exhibit a business cycle in one of three possible phases. This suggests that the 9 countries studied show a sufficient degree of co-movement in their main economic series to make their participation in a monetary union feasible. This has implications for a currently plausible scenario in which a core group qualifies according to the criteria in the Maastricht Treaty while others do not. Our analysis suggests little difference between six presumed 'insiders' and three likely 'outsiders' with regard to coordination of their business cycles.