Projections of physical conditions in the Gulf of Maine in 2050
Projections of physical conditions in the Gulf of Maine in 2050
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DOI：
10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00055
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发表时间：
2021-05-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Zeliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brickman, Dave;Alexander, Michael A.;Wang, Zeliang
缅因州湾（GoM）目前正在经历仪器记录中最温暖的时期。使用了两个高分辨率数值海洋模型来缩小全球气候预测的规模，以便对2050年“一切照旧”的碳排放情景下墨西哥政府的海洋物理特性进行四次估计。所有模拟都预测墨西哥湾平均海面温度（1.1摄氏度至2.4摄氏度）和海底温度（1.5摄氏度至2.1摄氏度）会增加。就平均垂直结构而言，所有模拟都预测整个水柱的温度会上升（表面到底部的变化为0.2摄氏度至0.5摄氏度）。GoM体积平均温度变化范围为1.5 ℃至2.3 ℃。转换为速率，海表温度预测都大于观测到的百年速率，两个预测低于和两个高于观测到的1982-2013年速率。海表盐度的变化更加多变，四分之三的模拟预测盐度会下降。底层盐度的变化在空间上和预测之间各不相同，三个模拟预测在较深的沃茨不同程度地增加，但在较浅的区域减少，一个模拟预测在所有底层沃茨盐度增加。在平均垂直结构方面，盐度结构各不相同，有两个模拟投影表面减少，开关符号与深度和两个投影增加整个（地下）水柱。三次模拟显示了沿海水域和较深沃茨之间的差异，据此预测，沿海地区将比较深沃茨有系统地更新鲜，最多可达0.2克/千克。在所有模拟中，距地表50米处的分层预计将增加，速率为0.003至0.006千克/米（-4）世纪（-1），低于在斯科舍大陆架观察到的变化。这些模拟的结果可用于评估墨西哥湾的潜在酸化和生态系统变化。
The Gulf of Maine (GoM) is currently experiencing its warmest period in the instrumental record. Two high-resolution numerical ocean models were used to downscale global climate projections to produce four estimates of ocean physical properties in the GoM in 2050 for the "business as usual" carbon emission scenario. All simulations project increases in the GoM mean sea surface temperature (of 1.1 degrees C-2.4 degrees C) and bottom temperature (of 1.5 degrees C-2.1 degrees C). In terms of mean vertical structure, all simulations project temperature increases throughout the water column (surface-to-bottom changes of 0.2 degrees C-0.5 degrees C). The GoM volume-averaged changes in temperature range from 1.5 degrees C to 2.3 degrees C. Translated to rates, the sea surface temperature projections are all greater than the observed 100-year rate, with two projections below and two above the observed 1982-2013 rate. Sea surface salinity changes are more variable, with three of four simulations projecting decreases. Bottom salinity changes vary spatially and between projections, with three simulations projecting varying increases in deeper waters but decreases in shallower zones and one simulation projecting a salinity increase in all bottom waters. In terms of mean vertical structure, salinity structure varies, with two simulations projecting surface decreases that switch sign with depth and two projecting increases throughout the (subsurface) water column. Three simulations show a difference between coastal and deeper waters whereby the coastal zone is projected to be systematically fresher than deeper waters, by as much as 0.2 g kg(-1). Stratification, 50 m to surface, is projected to increase in all simulations, with rates ranging from 0.003 to 0.006 kg m(-4) century(-1) which are lower than the observed change on the Scotian Shelf. The results from these simulations can be used to assess potential acidification and ecosystem changes in the GoM.