The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions
The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1999.0716
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发表时间：
1999-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Keeling, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keeling, MJ
预测入侵的可能成功在生态学，特别是流行病学中至关重要。一个生物体是否能够成功地入侵并在短期内持续存在，高度依赖于在入侵早期发展的空间相关性。通过对个体之间的相关性进行建模，我们能够理解空间异质性在入侵动力学中的作用，而不需要大规模的计算机模拟。在这里，一个自然的方法是开发一个固定的网络中的个人行为建模。这个公式被应用到一种疾病的传播通过一个结构化的网络，以确定入侵阈值和一个单一的流行病的一些统计特性。
Predicting the likely success of invasions is vitally important in ecology and especially epidemiology. Whether an organism can successfully invade and persist in the short-term is highly dependent on the spatial correlations that develop in the early stages of invasion. By modelling the correlations between individuals, we are able to understand the role of spatial heterogeneity in invasion dynamics without the need for large-scale computer simulations. Here, a natural methodology is developed for modelling the behaviour of individuals in a fixed network. This formulation is applied to the spread of a disease through a structured network to determine invasion thresholds and some statistical properties of a single epidemic.