Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival
Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1913007117
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发表时间：
2020-02-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wiens, John J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Roman-Palacios, Cristian;Wiens, John J.
气候变化可能是未来100年生物多样性的主要威胁。虽然在某些物种的衰退机制方面已经有了重要的工作，但通常仍然不清楚气候的哪些变化实际上会导致灭绝，以及有多少物种可能会消失。在这里，我们确定了与已经发生的广泛的局部干旱相关的气候的具体变化。然后，我们利用这些信息来预测未来生物多样性丧失的程度，并确定哪些过程可能阻止灭绝。我们使用了538种植物和动物物种的调查数据，其中44%已经在一个或多个地点进行了本地保护。我们发现，有地方性降水的地区比没有地方性降水的地区，年最热温度的变化更大、更快。令人惊讶的是，尽管人们广泛使用年平均温度作为整体气候变化的代表，但具有局部防御的地点年平均温度的变化要小得多。根据它们过去的扩散速度，我们估计这538个物种中有57-70%不会迅速扩散，以避免灭绝。然而，我们发现，生态位的变化似乎是更重要的是避免灭绝比扩散，虽然大多数研究只集中在扩散。具体来说，考虑到扩散和生态位的变化，我们预计到2070年，这538个物种中只有16-30%可能灭绝。总的来说，我们的研究结果有助于确定导致灭绝的特定气候变化以及可能有助于物种生存的过程。
Climate change may be a major threat to biodiversity in the next 100 years. Although there has been important work on mechanisms of decline in some species, it generally remains unclear which changes in climate actually cause extinctions, and how many species will likely be lost. Here, we identify the specific changes in climate that are associated with the widespread local extinctions that have already occurred. We then use this information to predict the extent of future biodiversity loss and to identify which processes may forestall extinction. We used data from surveys of 538 plant and animal species over time, 44% of which have already had local extinctions at one or more sites. We found that locations with local extinctions had larger and faster changes in hottest yearly temperatures than those without. Surprisingly, sites with local extinctions had significantly smaller changes in mean annual temperatures, despite the widespread use of mean annual temperatures as proxies for overall climate change. Based on their past rates of dispersal, we estimate that 57-70% of these 538 species will not disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction. However, we show that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal. Specifically, considering both dispersal and niche shifts, we project that only 16-30% of these 538 species may go extinct by 2070. Overall, our results help identify the specific climatic changes that cause extinction and the processes that may help species to survive.