Assessing the danger of war: parallels and differences between Europe in 1914 and East Asia in 2014
Assessing the danger of war: parallels and differences between Europe in 1914 and East Asia in 2014
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评估战争危险：1914年的欧洲与2014年的东亚之间的相似之处和差异
DOI：
10.1111/1468-2346.12177
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Joachim J. Krause
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Joachim J. Krause
这篇文章着眼于1914年夏天欧洲的战略形势与今天东亚的战略形势之间的结构性类比，特别强调爆发一场大战的可能性。作者考察了有关国际体系性质的类比，即国际体系的特点是完全无政府状态，还是主要参与者之间对维护和平和组织经济交流的方式有或多或少的发达和制度化的理解？本文讨论了国内因素（民族主义、民主、独裁或半民主政权），并调查了地理背景下的军事动态以及军事装备和技术的可用性。还讨论了军事升级的可能途径。特别要注意的是那些孤立自己的国家，以及那些动用军事手段有望迅速取得胜利的国家。这篇文章得出的结论是，1914年的欧洲和今天的东亚之间几乎没有什么相似之处，但朝鲜半岛的高度军事化和美国和中国在该地区不断发展的军事竞争确实意味着在不久的将来发生重大武装冲突的可能性。
The article looks at structural analogies between the strategic situation in Europe in the summer of 1914 and in East Asia today, with particular emphasis on the probability of the outbreak of a major war. The author examines analogies regarding the nature of the international system, i.e. is the international system characterized by outright anarchy or by a more or less developed and institutionalized understanding among the main actors about the way to preserve peace and to organize economic exchange? The article addresses domestic factors (nationalism, democratic, authoritarian or semi-democratic regimes) and investigates military dynamics against the backdrop of geography and the availability of military equipment and technologies. Possible routes of military escalation are also discussed. Special attention is paid to states that have isolated themselves and that dispose of military means that might promise swift victory. The article comes to the conclusion that there are very few similarities between Europe in 1914 and East Asia today, but that both the high degree of militarization of the Korean peninsula and the evolving military competition between the US and China in the region do imply the possibility of a major armed conflict in a not too distant future.