Estimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Estimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
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格陵兰冰盖表面质量平衡变化导致的 2100 年海平面上升估算
DOI：
10.5772/23913
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Nicolay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
X. Fettweis;Alexandre Belleflamme;M. Erpicum;B. Franco;S. Nicolay
表面质量平衡（SMB）可以看出，在第一近似值中，冬季降雪积累所获得的水质量减去夏季融水径流所损失的质量。与降雪和融化相比，在格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）的SMB方程中，降雨的质量增加以及净水通量（蒸发、升华、沉积和冷凝的总和）和风（吹雪）侵蚀的质量损失可以忽略不计（Box等人，2004年）。冰盖质量平衡还考虑到冰山崩解造成的质量损失。气候变暖对格陵兰冰盖SMB的影响将是由于固体降水增加而使内陆变厚，以及由于表面融化增加而使格陵兰冰盖周边变薄。气候变暖增加了夏季冰雪的融化，但也增加了海洋上空的蒸发。这导致更多的水分输送到内陆，从而导致更多的降水。冰山崩解对气候变化的反应可能是冰川流动的加速（Nick等人，2009; Zwally等人，2002年），但这些预测是非常不确定的（Sundal等人，2011年），在冰川学模型方面仍然需要大量的发展，以提高我们对格陵兰冰盖动态的认识和建模。这就是为什么我们将我们的研究只集中在格陵兰冰盖的SMB。IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）预测，为应对人类活动引起的全球变暖，径流量的增加将超过降水量的增加，因此，目前观察到的格陵兰冰盖表面融化（Fettweis等人，2011 b; Tedesco等人，2011;货车den Broeke等人，气候变化将在未来几十年继续并加剧（IPCC，2007）。来自格陵兰冰盖融化的淡水流量增加可能会扰乱北大西洋的温盐环流（通过减少驱动最后一个的密度对比），包括缓和欧洲气候的漂移。此外，格陵兰冰盖的持续融化，加上海洋的热膨胀和大陆冰川的融化，将使海平面上升，对荷兰、孟加拉国、新西兰等国造成众所周知的后果。目前估计，到2100年，格陵兰冰盖SMB减少对海平面上升的贡献为5-10厘米（Gregory和Huybrechts，2006年; Fettweis等人，格陵兰冰盖表面物质平衡变化对2100年海平面上升的估计25
The Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be seen, in first approximation, as the water mass gained by the winter snowfall accumulation minus the mass lost by the meltwater run-off in summer. The mass gain from rainfall as well as the mass loss from erosion from the net water fluxes (the sum of the evaporation, sublimation, deposition and condensation) and from the wind (blowing snow) are negligible in the SMB equation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) compared to the snowfall and the melt (Box et al., 2004). The ice sheet mass balance takes also into account the mass loss from iceberg calving. Consequences of a warmer climate on the Greenland ice sheet SMB will be a thickening inland, due to increased solid precipitation, and a thinning at the Greenland ice sheet periphery, due to an increasing surface melt. A climatic warming increases the snow and ice melting in summer but it enhances also evaporation above the ocean. This leads to higher moisture transport inland and, consequently, higher precipitation. The response of the iceberg calving to the climate change could be an acceleration of the glacier flow (Nick et al., 2009; Zwally et al., 2002) but these projections are very uncertain (Sundal et al., 2011) and a lot of developments are still needed in the glaciology models for improving our knowledge and modelling of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics. That is why we will focus our study only on the SMB of the Greenland ice sheet. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projects, in response to global warming induced by human activities, that the run-off increase will exceed the precipitation increase and therefore that the currently observed surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Fettweis et al., 2011b; Tedesco et al., 2011; Van den Broeke et al., 2009) will continue and intensify during the next decades (IPCC, 2007). An increasing freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet melting could perturb the thermohaline circulation (by reducing the density contrast driving this last one) in the North Atlantic including the drift which tempers the European climate. In addition, an enduring Greenland ice sheet melting, combined with the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melt of continental glaciers, will raise the sea level with well-known consequences for countries such as the Netherlands, Bangladesh,... The contribution of the Greenland ice sheet SMB decrease to the sea level rise is currently evaluated to be 5-10 cm by 2100 (Gregory and Huybrechts, 2006; Fettweis et al., Estimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet 25