Epidemiological effects of group size variation in social species
Epidemiological effects of group size variation in social species
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2013.0206
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发表时间：
2013-06-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caillaud, Damien;Craft, Meggan E.;Meyers, Lauren Ancel
群体结构人群中的接触模式决定了传染病暴发的进程。基于网络的模型揭示了群体接触模式与流行病动态之间的重要联系，但这些模型通常忽略了群体内组成的异质性。在这里，我们分析了一个灵活的数学模型的疾病传播的层次结构的野生动物种群，并发现，群体规模的变化增加降低了流行阈值，使社会动物种群容易受到更广泛的病原体。群体规模的变化也会增加轻度传染性疾病流行的可能性，但会降低高度传染性疾病流行的可能性和预期规模。此外，我们引入了流行病学有效群体规模的概念，我们将其定义为一个假设人群的群体规模，该人群包含与观察人群具有相同流行阈值的相同规模的群体。使用塞伦盖蒂狮子项目的数据，我们发现骄傲生活的塞伦盖蒂狮子在流行病学上与具有高达20%的骄傲的同质种群相当。
Contact patterns in group-structured populations determine the course of infectious disease outbreaks. Network-based models have revealed important connections between group-level contact patterns and the dynamics of epidemics, but these models typically ignore heterogeneities in within-group composition. Here, we analyse a flexible mathematical model of disease transmission in a hierarchically structured wildlife population, and find that increased variation in group size reduces the epidemic threshold, making social animal populations susceptible to a broader range of pathogens. Variation in group size also increases the likelihood of an epidemic for mildly transmissible diseases, but can reduce the likelihood and expected size of an epidemic for highly transmissible diseases. Further, we introduce the concept of epidemiological effective group size, which we define to be the group size of a hypothetical population containing groups of identical size that has the same epidemic threshold as an observed population. Using data from the Serengeti Lion Project, we find that pride-living Serengeti lions are epidemiologically comparable to a homogeneous population with up to 20 per cent larger prides.