Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario
Prediction of the distribution of Arctic-nesting pink-footed geese under a warmer climate scenario
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01461.x
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Mehlum, Fridtjof
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jensen, Rikke A.;Madsen, Jesper;Mehlum, Fridtjof
预计全球气候变化将使物种分布范围向极地移动，特别是高北极物种的分布范围有缩小和种群减少的风险。我们建立了物种分布模型，斯瓦尔巴德筑巢粉脚鹅与它们的发生环境和气候变量，并使用该模型来预测它们的分布在气候变暖的情况下。最简约的模型包括平均5月温度，无霜月数和潮湿和潮湿的苔藓为主的植被在该地区的比例。这两个气候变量是鹅是否能在生理上完成繁殖周期的指标，苔藓植被是适宜饲养条件的指标。预测分布到温暖的气候情景提出了一个大的北部和东部扩展的潜在繁殖范围在斯瓦尔巴群岛，即使在温和的温度上升（1和2摄氏度的夏季温度上升，分别）。与最近关于北极野生动物未来分布的建议相反，我们预测，气候变暖可能会导致至少一些北极种鹅的种群规模进一步增长。
Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high-Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard-nesting pink-footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost-free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss-dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north- and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 degrees C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.