Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate
Seasonality, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Extremes Change in a Warmer Climate
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001824
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发表时间：
2021-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Paschalis, Athanasios
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moustakis, Yiannis;Papalexiou, Simon Michael;Paschalis, Athanasios
在气候变化的影响下，极端降水预计会加剧，从而对洪水和生态系统功能产生影响。在这里，我们使用WRF对流允许气候模式（类似于4公里，1小时）在美国的站点数据和高分辨率模拟来评估每小时极端降水的未来变化。研究表明，在气候变化的影响下，每小时极端降水和风暴深度预计会加剧，在美国大约75%的网格点上，现在20年的降雨量将变成7年的平均降雨量。这种增强主要表现为降雨尾重的增加。在95%的区域内，极端降雨的季节性和持续时间也表现出统计上显著的变化。我们的研究结果表明，未来的极端降水将更加非线性，持续时间更短，全年分布更加均匀。
Precipitation extremes are expected to intensify under climate change with consequent impacts in flooding and ecosystem functioning. Here we use station data and high-resolution simulations from the WRF convection permitting climate model (similar to 4 km, 1 h) over the US to assess future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. It is demonstrated that hourly precipitation extremes and storm depths are expected to intensify under climate change and what is now a 20-year rainfall will become a 7-year rainfall on average for similar to 75% of gridpoints over the US. This intensification is mostly expressed as an increase in rainfall tail heaviness. Statistically significant changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall extremes are also exhibited over similar to 95% of the domain. Our results suggest more non-linear future precipitation extremes with shorter spell duration that are distributed more uniformly throughout the year.