Ten key short-term sectoral benchmarks to limit warming to 1.5°C
Ten key short-term sectoral benchmarks to limit warming to 1.5°C
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DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2017.1397495
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Blok, Kornelis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kuramochi, Takeshi;Hoehne, Niklas;Blok, Kornelis
本文确定并量化了到2020-2025年将采取的10个最重要的气候行动基准，以保持1.5摄氏度温室气体排放途径的窗口。我们对现有的排放情景进行了全面审查，扫描了所有部门和各自必要的过渡，并根据所需的全球低碳过渡的长期视角，提炼了最重要的短期行动基准。由于碳预算有限，再加上现有系统的惯性，全球能源经济模型只能找到有限的途径来保持与巴黎协定长期温度目标一致的1.5摄氏度世界。确定的基准包括：将可再生能源和其他零和低碳发电的当前增长率维持到2025年，到2050年达到100%的份额;没有新的煤电厂，到2025年将现有煤电车队的排放量减少30%;到2035-2050年销售最后一辆化石燃料乘用车;制定并商定航空和航运1.5摄氏度的一致愿景;到2020年，所有新建筑都将实现无化石能源和近零能源;到2020年，将建筑翻新率从2015年的不到1%提高到5%; 2020年后，排放密集型行业的所有新装置都将实现低碳，最大限度地提高材料效率;到2030年，将林业和其他土地利用的排放量减少到2010年水平的95%以下，到2025年停止净森林砍伐;将农业排放量保持在或低于当前水平，建立和传播区域最佳实践，加强研究;加快负排放技术部署的研究和规划。
This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020-2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5 degrees C-consistent GHG emission pathway. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important short-term benchmarks for action in line with the long-term perspective of the required global low-carbon transition. Owing to the limited carbon budget, combined with the inertia of existing systems, global energy economic models find only limited pathways to stay on track for a 1.5 degrees C world consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.The identified benchmarks include:Sustain the current growth rate of renewables and other zero and low-carbon power generation until 2025 to reach 100% share by 2050;No new coal power plants, reduce emissions from existing coal fleet by 30% by 2025;Last fossil fuel passenger car sold by 2035-2050;Develop and agree on a 1.5 degrees C-consistent vision for aviation and shipping;All new buildings fossil-free and near-zero energy by 2020;Increase building renovation rates from less than 1% in 2015 to 5% by 2020;All new installations in emissions-intensive sectors low-carbon after 2020, maximize material efficiency;Reduce emissions from forestry and other land use to 95% below 2010 levels by 2030, stop net deforestation by 2025;Keep agriculture emissions at or below current levels, establish and disseminate regional best practice, ramp up research;Accelerate research and planning for negative emission technology deployment.