Cost and demand functions of electricity in Gambia from 1982 to 2007
Cost and demand functions of electricity in Gambia from 1982 to 2007
复制标题
1982年至2007年冈比亚电力成本与需求函数
DOI：
10.5897/ajbm10.561
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. Sillah
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Sillah
本文认为电力需求应与电力供应同时估算。然后，它使用简化形式回归和矢量误差校正方法估计冈比亚的电力需求和供应。本文发现，联立方程组不能简化为简化形式的回归来满足统计要求，而是理论建模要求决定了统计模型的选择。结合模型理论约束的矢量误差修正方法比简化形式的回归方法更能拟合数据。从该方法的估计结果来看，电力需求具有价格弹性和收入弹性。如果企业的平均电价高于人均国内生产总值增长率的1.3倍，则电力需求会萎缩；由于需求具有价格弹性，提高电价将导致公司收入下降。电力行业，这里指的是国家电力公司，表现出规模不经济。该行业效率低下，无法创新和积累知识，无法在平均单位成本下降的情况下扩大产量。在目前的运行情况下，只有提高平均单位成本才能扩大产量，从而提高电价。
This paper argues that an electricity demand should be estimated simultaneously with the supply. It then estimates the demand for and the supply of the electricity in the Gambia using reduced form regressions and vector error correction methods. The paper finds that systems of simultaneous equations cannot be simplified to reduced form regressions to satisfy the statistical requirements, but rather the theoretical modeling requirements determine the choice of the statistical model. The vector error correction method incorporating the theoretical restrictions of the model is found to better fit the data than the reduced form regressions. From the estimation results of this method, the electricity demand is found to be price elastic and income elastic. The electricity demand is found to shrink if the company charges an average price higher than 1.3 times of the per capita GDP growth rate; and since the demand is price elastic, increasing the electricity price will result in falling revenues for the company. The electricity industry, which here refers to the national electricity company, exhibits diseconomies of scale. The industry is found inefficient, and failing to innovate and accumulate knowledge to enable it to expand output with falling average unit cost. With the current operation, the expansion of output could be undertaken only with increasing average unit cost and hence increasing electricity price.