Assessing the Potential Impact of the Global Crisis on the Labour Market and the Informal Sector in Vietnam
Assessing the Potential Impact of the Global Crisis on the Labour Market and the Informal Sector in Vietnam
复制标题
评估全球危机对越南劳动力市场和非正规部门的潜在影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Roubaud
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Cling;Mireille Razafindrakoto;F. Roubaud
虽然影响没有其他亚洲国家那么明显，但越南受到2008年开始的国际危机的影响，导致经济增长明显放缓。本文旨在评估这次经济危机对就业、失业和非正规部门的影响。与以往对这一问题的研究相反，我们预计失业率会小幅上升。根据我们的估计，在就业方面，危机的大部分影响实际上将在非正规部门感受到，在非正规部门，劳动力市场上的大多数新进入者和下岗工人最终将继续工作。这一特点将导致迫切需要制定具体政策，以解决非正规部门生产率低及其人力缺乏劳动保护的问题。
Although the impact was less dramatic than in other Asian countries, Vietnam has been affected by the international crisis which started in 2008, resulting in a significant slowdown of economic growth. This paper aims at assessing the impact of this economic crisis on employment, unemployment and the informal sector. Contrarily to previous studies on this subject, we anticipate a very small increase of unemployment. According to our estimates, most of the impact of the crisis in terms of employment will actually be felt in the informal sector, where most new entrants on the labour market and laid(off workers will end up working. This feature will result in an urgent need to put in place specific policies to tackle informal sector low productivity and its manpower's lack of labour protection.