The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph7062607
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Forsberg, Bertil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rocklov, Joacim;Forsberg, Bertil
在气候变化的背景下，高温的短期影响是一个严重的问题。在今天气候温和的地区，研究活动相当有限，尽管温度敏感性的差异将在了解气候变化的暴露、适应、适应和健康风险方面发挥根本作用。此外，许多研究采用生物气象指标，但没有仔细研究相对湿度影响的区域异质性。我们的目的是研究夏季温度和相对湿度的影响，以及瑞典三个地区的区域差异，允许夏季温度尺度上的影响异质性。为此，我们从瑞典国家健康和福利委员会以及瑞典气象和水文研究所收集了1998年至2005年斯德哥尔摩、哥德堡和斯科内65岁以上人群的死亡率数据。在斯德哥尔摩和斯科内，平均每天有22人死亡，而在哥德堡，平均每天有10人死亡。我们拟合了时间序列回归模型来估计高环境温度对日死亡率的相对风险，使用平滑函数来控制混杂因素，并估计了暴露的非线性影响，同时允许夏季观测的自回归相关性。温度对死亡率的影响分布在同一天或第二天，在夏季温度的第90百分位数以上，每摄氏度的累积综合相对风险约为5.1% (CI = 0.3, 10.1)，具有统计学意义。高相对湿度的影响仅在一个地区具有统计学意义，相对湿度（高于80百分位）和温度（高于90百分位）的影响也具有统计学意义。在所研究的最南端地区，随着夏季低温的降低，死亡率似乎显著增加，而在两个更靠北的地区，这一点并不明显。经过死亡率迁移调整后，温暖温度对瑞典老年人口的影响在不同地区相当强烈和一致。相对湿度的影响在不同地区似乎是不同的，在某些地区可能是一个更重要的死亡率预测指标。
The short-term effects of high temperatures are a serious concern in the context of climate change. In areas that today have mild climates the research activity has been rather limited, despite the fact that differences in temperature susceptibility will play a fundamental role in understanding the exposure, acclimatization, adaptation and health risks of a changing climate. In addition, many studies employ biometeorological indexes without careful investigation of the regional heterogeneity in the impact of relative humidity. We aimed to investigate the effects of summer temperature and relative humidity and regional differences in three regions of Sweden allowing for heterogeneity of the effect over the scale of summer temperature. To do so, we collected mortality data for ages 65+ from Stockholm, Goteborg and Skane from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute for the years 1998 through 2005. In Stockholm and Skane on average 22 deaths per day occurred, while in Goteborg the mean frequency of daily deaths was 10. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate relative risks of high ambient temperatures on daily mortality using smooth functions to control for confounders, and estimated non-linear effects of exposure while allowing for auto-regressive correlation of observations within summers. The effect of temperature on mortality was found distributed over the same or following day, with statistically significant cumulative combined relative risk of about 5.1% (CI = 0.3, 10.1) per degrees C above the 90th percentile of summer temperature. The effect of high relative humidity was statistically significant in only one of the regions, as was the effect of relative humidity (above 80th percentile) and temperature (above 90th percentile). In the southernmost region studied there appeared to be a significant increase in mortality with decreasing low summer temperatures that was not apparent in the two more northerly situated regions. The effects of warm temperatures on the elderly population in Sweden are rather strong and consistent across different regions after adjustment for mortality displacement. The impact of relative humidity appears to be different in regions, and may be a more important predictor of mortality in some areas.