Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts
Global modeling of tropical cyclone storm surges using high-resolution forecasts
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x
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发表时间：
2019-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloemendaal, Nadia;Muis, Sanne;Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
我们评估了ECMWF综合预报系统（IFS）数据对热带气旋（TC）风暴潮全球模拟的适用性。我们以0.225度水平分辨率从IFS提取了8个历史tc的气象强迫，并使用全球潮汐和浪涌模式模拟了相应的浪涌。飓风“厄玛”和“桑迪”的最大风暴潮高度与潮汐计观测值进行比较，r -2值分别为0.86和0.74。其他tc的最大浪涌高度与文献一致。我们的案例研究表明，0.225度的水平分辨率足以用于TC浪涌的大规模建模。通过将气象强迫升级到低至1.0度的较粗分辨率，我们评估了水平分辨率对浪涌模拟性能的影响。我们证明，在所有案例研究中，较粗的分辨率导致较低的模型浪涌，在“厄玛”和“纳尔吉斯”中，模型浪涌降低了1米。不同分辨率之间浪涌差异最大的是浪涌最高的tc。我们讨论了最大风暴潮高度的可能驱动因素（风暴潮大小、强度、海岸坡度和复杂性），发现海岸复杂性和坡度比单独的风暴潮大小和强度发挥更深远的作用。最大的浪涌出现在海岸线复杂的地区（分形维数>1.10），一般来说，海岸线较浅。我们的研究结果表明，使用高分辨率气象强迫对容易出现高TC浪涌的地区特别有益，因为这些浪涌在粗分辨率数据集中减少得最多。
We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225 degrees horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R-2-values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225 degrees is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0 degrees, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension>1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.