Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario-Based Expert Elicitation
Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario-Based Expert Elicitation
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DOI：
10.1002/sys.21298
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Lambert, James H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Connelly, Elizabeth B.;Colosi, Lisa M.;Lambert, James H.
目前，航空业几乎完全依赖石油衍生燃料。由于国家安全、原油原料的长期可获得性和环境影响等方面的担忧，人们对寻找传统喷气燃料的替代品越来越感兴趣。可行的替代品必须符合一系列标准，涉及供应的质量和数量、成本竞争力和环境可持续性。发展生物喷气燃料行业的各种行业倡议的优先事项受到环境法规、原油和炼油厂产品的市场价格以及来自其他行业的竞争等不确定性的影响。这项工作使用基于情景的偏好来引出并告知决策者对行业优先事项最有影响的紧急情况和未来情况的组合。该分析还揭示了哪些举措对不断变化的政治、经济和技术条件是强有力的，从而支持与建立安全的生物喷气燃料供应相关的决策。该方法及其结果有助于生成系统工程需求，识别新兴行业的关键风险来源。(C)2015年威利期刊公司。
The aviation sector relies almost exclusively on petroleum-derived fuels at the present time. Due to concerns including national security, long-term availability of crude oil feedstock, and environmental impacts, there is an increasing interest in identifying alternatives to conventional jet fuel. Viable alternatives must meet a number of criteria, related to quality and quantity of supply, cost-competitiveness, and environmental sustainability. Priorities for diverse industry initiatives for the development of a biojet fuel industry are influenced by uncertainties including environmental regulation, market prices of crude oil and refinery products, and competition from other industries. This work uses scenario-based preferences to elicit and inform decision makers on the combinations of emergent and future conditions that are most impactful to the priorities for the industry. The analysis also reveals which initiatives are robust to evolving political, economic, and technological conditions, thus supporting decision-making relevant to establishing a secure supply of biojet fuel. The method and its results are helpful to the generation of systems engineering requirements recognizing key sources of risk for an emerging industry. (C) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.