Tales of future weather
Tales of future weather
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2450
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Smith, L. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hazeleger, W.;van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.;Smith, L. A.
社会很容易受到极端天气事件的影响，进而也容易受到人类对未来事件的影响。随着气候的变化，天气模式也会发生变化。目前正在寻找更有效的方法，以帮助决策者减缓以避免气候变化，并适应变化。传统方法使用气候模式模拟的集合、统计偏差校正、降尺度到与决策者相关的时空尺度，然后转化为感兴趣的量。这种方法的准确性无法检验，而且它面临着原则上的挑战。另外，假设气候环境中的数值天气预报模式可以提供未来气候中高影响天气的高分辨率模拟的定制叙述。这种“未来天气的故事”方法将有助于解释低分辨率的模拟。可以说，它有可能提供补充的、更真实的、更物理一致的未来天气的图片。
Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives of high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.