Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change
Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change
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DOI：
10.1029/2008jd010405
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发表时间：
2008-12-10
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Forster, P. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gregory, J. M.;Forster, P. M.
对20世纪随时间变化的气候变化的观测和模拟（使用HadCM 3 AOGCM）表明，辐射强迫F和全球平均地表气温变化Δ T之间存在线性关系F = ρ Δ T。这也是对CMIP 3 AOGCM的Delta T的一个很好的描述，其中CO2以每年1%的速度增长。恒定的“气候耐受性”ρ与瞬时气候响应有关（TCR，在1%CO2情景下CO2加倍时的Delta DT）。不考虑自然强迫（火山和太阳）造成的任何趋势，这是人为强迫的趋势相比，这是小的，我们估计，真实世界的TCR是1.3-2.3 K（5-95%的不确定性范围）从1970-2006年的数据，考虑到非受迫变率的影响在较长的时间尺度。气候对偶发火山强迫的响应不能用同样的关系来描述，值得进一步研究;这构成了该方法的系统不确定性。该方法对人为气溶胶强迫非常不敏感，1970-2006年期间可能变化不大，因此不会影响Delta T的趋势。我们的范围是非常相似的范围最近AOGCM结果的TCR。因此，在SRES A1 B排放情景下，利用简单的经验关系F = rho Delta T对21世纪的变暖进行的预测与AOGCM在该情景下的结果范围一致。我们的TCR范围也类似于那些从观测约束基于模型的方法。
Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rho Delta T between radiative forcing F and global mean surface air temperature change Delta T. The same is a good description of Delta T from CMIP3 AOGCMs integrated with CO2 increasing at 1% per year compounded. The constant "climate resistance'' rho is related to the transient climate response (TCR, Delta DT at the time of doubled CO2 under the 1% CO2 scenario). Disregarding any trend caused by natural forcing (volcanic and solar), which is small compared with the trend in anthropogenic forcing, we estimate that the real-world TCR is 1.3-2.3 K (5-95% uncertainty range) from the data of 1970-2006, allowing for the effect of unforced variability on longer timescales. The climate response to episodic volcanic forcing cannot be described by the same relationship and merits further investigation; this constitutes a systematic uncertainty of the method. The method is quite insensitive to the anthropogenic aerosol forcing, which probably did not vary much during 1970-2006 and therefore did not affect the trend in Delta T. Our range is very similar to the range of recent AOGCM results for the TCR. Consequently projections for warming during the twenty-first century under the SRES A1B emissions scenario made using the simple empirical relationship F = rho Delta T agree with the range of AOGCM results for that scenario. Our TCR range is also similar to those from observationally constrained model-based methods.