Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.
Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.
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气候变化增强了小麦花期的稳定性。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170305
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
He Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
He Y
冬小麦开花期的稳定性是确保作物在不同气候条件下表现一致和稳健的关键。然而，气候变化对小麦开花日期的影响仍然不确定。本研究旨在阐明气候变化对小麦开花期的影响，预测未来气候条件对开花期稳定性的影响，并确定研究区域内最稳定的小麦基因型。利用中国冬麦区的观测资料，建立了小麦开花期的多基因座遗传模型。基于MLG的模型被用来预测不同气候情景下的花期。然后利用模拟的花期来评估不同等位基因组合在预测气候条件下的花期稳定性。我们的基于MLG的模型有效地模拟了开花期，均方根误差(RMSE)为2.3天，解释了100个小麦基因型中开花期的大约88.5%的基因变异。我们发现，与基线气候相比，在代表浓度路径4.5(RCP4.5)和RCP8.5气候情景下，到2050年，小麦开花日期预计将在目标播种窗口内提前约11和14天。此外，我们的分析显示，由于早花趋势，在预测的气候情景下，小麦开花日期的稳定性可能会进一步加强。最终，我们证明了在小麦开花期稳定性中起关键作用的是Vrnn和Ppd基因的组合，而不是单独的VrnorPpd基因。我们的结果表明，在当前和预测的气候情景下，Ppd-D1a与携带vrn-D1等位基因的冬季基因型的结合显著有助于花期的稳定。这些发现为未来气候条件下的小麦育种者和生产者提供了有价值的见解。
The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination ofVrnandPpdgenes, rather than individualVrnorPpdgenes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination ofPpd-D1awith winter genotypes carrying thevrn-D1allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.