Cyclic hantavirus epidemics in humans - Predicted by rodent host dynamics
Cyclic hantavirus epidemics in humans - Predicted by rodent host dynamics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2009.03.002
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Vapalahti, Olli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kallio, Eva R.;Begon, Michael;Vapalahti, Olli
源自野生动物的人畜共患疾病是新发传染病的主要来源。汉坦病毒每年在世界范围内造成数千例人类疾病病例，了解和预测人类汉坦病毒的流行仍然是未解决的挑战。本文研究了人类疾病肾病流行（NE）及其病原普马拉汉坦病毒（PUUV）与该病毒宿主鼠库田鼠（Myodes glareolus）之间的三级关系。一项大型长期数据集（14年，2583例人类NE病例和4751例被困的河岸田鼠）表明，人类感染的数量呈现季节性和多年波动，受田鼠周期阶段和一年中的时间的影响，并随着田鼠数量的增加而滞后几个月。我们的研究结果表明，尽管人类汉坦病毒流行之前在宿主种群中有较高的血清流行率，但即使不了解宿主种群中的汉坦病毒动态，也可以仅通过载体物种的种群动态准确预测。(C) 2009爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, and understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics still poses unsolved challenges. Here we studied the three-level relationships between the human disease nephropathia epidemica (NE), its etiological agent Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) and the rodent host of the virus, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). A large and long-term data set (14 years, 2583 human NE cases and 4751 trapped bank voles) indicates that the number of human infections shows both seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations, is influenced by the phase of vole cycle and time of the year, and follows vole abundance with a lag of a few months. Our results suggest that although human hantavirus epidemics are preceded by high sero prevalence in the host population, they may be accurately predicted solely by the population dynamics of the carrier species, even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host populations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.