The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016
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发表时间：
2016-10-18
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Tebaldi, Claudia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gillett, Nathan P.;Shiogama, Hideo;Tebaldi, Claudia
探测和归因模拟是CMIP 5的重要组成部分，是政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告气候变化探测和归因评估的基础。探测和归因模式相互比较项目的主要目标是：促进更好地估计人为和自然强迫变化对观测到的全球变暖以及观测到的其他气候变量的全球和区域变化的贡献;促进估计历史排放如何改变和正在改变当代气候风险;并促进改进对未来气候变化的观测约束预测。D&A研究通常需要非强迫控制模拟和历史模拟，包括所有主要的人为和自然强迫。此类模拟将作为DECK和CMIP 6历史模拟的一部分进行。此外，D&A研究需要模拟覆盖由单个强迫或强迫子集驱动的历史时期：这里提出了这样的模拟。这里提出的实验设计的关键新特征包括：首先，新的历史模拟，仅气溶胶，仅平流层臭氧，仅CO2，仅太阳和仅火山强迫，促进了对气候对个体强迫响应的改进估计，其次，未来的单一强迫实验，允许对未来气候变化的观测约束预测，第三，一种实验设计，它允许在平等的基础上比较有和没有耦合大气化学的模型。
Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratosphericozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.