Rates and probabilities in economic modelling - Transformation, translation and appropriate application
Rates and probabilities in economic modelling - Transformation, translation and appropriate application
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DOI：
10.2165/00019053-200725010-00002
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Hollenbeak, Christopher S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fleurence, Rachael L.;Hollenbeak, Christopher S.
经济模型越来越多地被用于评价卫生技术的成本效益。良好的建模实践要求之一是适当地应用比率和概率。尽管以前描述了适当使用比率和概率，但对其定义的简单理解仍然存在混淆。本文的目的是提供一个简明的指南，以理解在经济模型中使用文献中报告的比率和概率的问题，并理解何时以及如何适当地转换它们。本文首先定义了比率和概率，并说明了这两种度量之间的本质区别。讨论了比率和概率之间的适当转换，并提供了简单的示例来说明技术和缺陷。然后描述了如何在经济模型中使用转换后的比率和概率，并提出了一些建议。
Economic modelling is increasingly being used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of health technologies. One of the requirements for good practice in modelling is appropriate application of rates and probabilities. In spite of previous descriptions of appropriate use of rates and probabilities, confusions persist beyond a simple understanding of their definitions. The objective of this article is to provide a concise guide to understanding the issues surrounding the use of rates and probabilities reported in the literature in economic models, and an understanding of when and how to transform them appropriately. The article begins by defining rates and probabilities and shows the essential difference between the two measures. Appropriate conversions between rates and probabilities are discussed, and simple examples are provided to illustrate the techniques and pitfalls. How the transformed rates and probabilities may be used in economic models is then described and some recommendations are suggested.