Annual and seasonal mapping of peak intensity, magnitude and duration of extreme precipitation events across a climatic gradient, northeast Spain
Annual and seasonal mapping of peak intensity, magnitude and duration of extreme precipitation events across a climatic gradient, northeast Spain
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1808
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发表时间：
2009-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Beguerı́a;S. Vicente‐Serrano;J. López‐Moreno;J. García‐Ruiz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Beguerı́a;S. Vicente‐Serrano;J. López‐Moreno;J. García‐Ruiz
评估大区域极端降水的特征引起了人们极大的兴趣，主要是由于其在灾害分析中的应用。然而，由于大多数长降水记录是每天收集的，因此大多数分析都简化为每日降雨强度。然而，与极端降水事件相关的危险情况可能是由非常强的降雨引起的，也可能是由于长时间持续阴雨而导致的大量累积降水引起的。在本文中，我们展示了如何使用基于极值理论的方法来获得伊比利亚半岛东北部具有对比气候特征的大区域降水事件参数（峰值强度、震级和持续时间）的连续分位数图。计算了概率分布参数的空间模型，从而可以构建区域概率模型。该分析基于降水事件的时间序列，该时间序列是从原始的每日序列中获得的。除了通常的年度分析外，还进行了季节性分析。这使得可以评估一年中不同时间极端事件概率的空间分布差异。版权所有 © 2008 英国皇家气象学会
Assessing the characteristics of extreme precipitation over large regions has a great interest, mainly due to its applications in hazard analysis. However, most of the analyses are reduced to daily rainfall intensity due to the fact that most long precipitation records were collected on a daily basis. Hazardous situations related to extreme precipitation events, however, can be originated either by very intense rainfall, or by large accumulated precipitation due to the persistence of the rainy conditions over a long period of time. In this paper, we show the use of a methodology based on the extreme‐value theory to obtain continuous maps of quantiles of precipitation event parameters—peak intensity, magnitude and duration—for a large region with contrasted climatic characteristics in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula. Spatial models of the probability distributions parameters were calculated, which allowed constructing the regional probability models. The analysis was based on time series of precipitation events, which were obtained from the original daily series. In addition to the usual annual‐based analysis, seasonal analyses were also performed. This allowed assessing the differences in the spatial distribution of the probability of extreme events at different times of the year. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society