A global sensitivity analysis for African sleeping sickness.
A global sensitivity analysis for African sleeping sickness.
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DOI：
10.1017/s0031182010001496
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发表时间：
2011-04
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Galvani A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis S;Aksoy S;Galvani A
非洲昏睡病是一种寄生虫病，通过舌蝇属的采采蝇叮咬传播。我们构建了机制模型的基本繁殖数，R 0，布氏锥虫冈比亚和布氏锥虫罗得西亚，西非和东非人类昏睡病的病原体。我们提出了全球敏感性分析，这些模型排名的生物参数，可以解释R 0的变化的重要性，使用参数范围的基础上，文献，现场数据和expertize出乌干达。对于西非昏睡病，我们的研究结果表明，Glossina fuscipes fuscipes从人类身上取血的比例是最重要的因素，这表明人类暴露于采采蝇的差异是T分布的基础。B.冈比亚的。T. B. gambiense，T. B. Rhodesiense是Glossina难治性感染的比例。这一发现强调了最近的工作可能产生的影响，表明营养紧张的采采蝇更容易受到锥虫感染，并提供了广泛的支持，在发展中的控制策略，旨在增加在采采蝇的难治性。我们注意到，对于T。B.在对罗得西亚采采蝇的研究中，采采蝇的种群参数--物种组成、存活率和丰度--几乎与难治性比例一样高，而且该模型假设，在乌干达发生东非昏睡病的地区，定期用杀锥虫剂治疗牲畜是一种既定做法。
African sleeping sickness is a parasitic disease transmitted through the bites of tsetse flies of the genus Glossina. We constructed mechanistic models for the basic reproduction number, R0, of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, respectively the causative agents of West and East African human sleeping sickness. We present global sensitivity analyses of these models that rank the importance of the biological parameters that may explain variation in R0, using parameter ranges based on literature, field data and expertize out of Uganda. For West African sleeping sickness, our results indicate that the proportion of bloodmeals taken from humans by Glossina fuscipes fuscipes is the most important factor, suggesting that differences in the exposure of humans to tsetse are fundamental to the distribution of T. b. gambiense. The second ranked parameter for T. b. gambiense and the highest ranked for T. b. rhodesiense was the proportion of Glossina refractory to infection. This finding underlines the possible implications of recent work showing that nutritionally stressed tsetse are more susceptible to trypanosome infection, and provides broad support for control strategies in development that are aimed at increasing refractoriness in tsetse flies. We note though that for T. b. rhodesiense the population parameters for tsetse – species composition, survival and abundance – were ranked almost as highly as the proportion refractory, and that the model assumed regular treatment of livestock with trypanocides as an established practice in the areas of Uganda experiencing East African sleeping sickness.