Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence
Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev-polisci-031710-101450
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Adams, James
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Adams, James
选举的空间模型确定了促使政党精英改变政策立场的因素，包括选民政策偏好的变化，竞争对手政党的政策变化，过去的选举结果，以及政党精英对能力和诚信等评价维度的价值形象的变化。我回顾了多党选举的实证研究，即，涉及三个或三个以上主要政党的选举，评估政党精英对这些因素的政策反应，沿着对政党政策转变的选举后果的实证研究。这篇评论揭示了一个悖论：一方面，实证研究得出结论认为，缔约方根据空间建模者确定的因素系统地改变其政策立场。另一方面，只有微弱和不一致的经验证据表明，选民实际上认为政党的政策转变，和/或这些转变有重大的选举后果。因此，空间理论的预测在很大程度上得到了验证，而支撑空间理论的假设则受到了质疑。
The spatial model of elections identifies factors that motivate party elites to shift their policy positions, including changes in voters' policy preferences, rival parties' policy shifts, past election results, and changes in party elites' valence images with respect to dimensions of evaluation such as competence and integrity. I review empirical studies on multiparty elections, i.e., elections involving three or more major parties, that evaluate party elites' policy responses to these factors, along with empirical studies on the electoral consequences of parties' policy shifts. This review reveals a paradox: on the one hand, empirical studies conclude that parties systematically shift their policy positions in response to the factors that spatial modelers have identified. On the other hand, there is only weak and inconsistent empirical evidence that voters actually perceive parties' policy shifts, and/or that these shifts have significant electoral consequences. Thus the predictions of spatial theory are largely verified, whereas the assumptions that underpin spatial theory are called into question.