Development of a New Typhoon Bogussing Scheme Based on Potential Vorticity Dynamics for Highly Accurate Typhoon Forecasts
Development of a New Typhoon Bogussing Scheme Based on Potential Vorticity Dynamics for Highly Accurate Typhoon Forecasts
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开发基于位涡动力学的新型台风消散方案，以实现高精度台风预报
DOI：
10.2208/proce1989.55.436
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Yasuda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Yoshino;H. Kojima;T. Yasuda
为了提高台风路径和强度的预报精度，本文提出了一种新的中尺度模式台风初始化方法。新的台风预报方案是基于位涡反演技术和一个简单的时变轴对称台风模式，能够将高分辨率的台风三维结构吸收到低分辨率的台风初估场中，与台风的环境条件和大气动力学相一致。利用PSU/NCAR MM 5对1999年Bart台风进行的初步数值试验表明，新方法对经验参数和近似值的依赖性较小，与传统的业务方法相比，具有较高的精度。
In order to increase the forecasting accuracy of typhoon track and intensity, a new typhoon initialization method for mesoscale meteorological models is developed in this study. The new typhoon bogussing scheme is based on the potential vorticity inversion technique with a simple time-dependent axis-symmetric typhoon model, and can ingest a realistic high-resolution three-dimensional typhoon structure into low-resolution first guess fields, consistent with its environmental condition and atmospheric dynamics. Preliminary numerical experiments of Typhoon Bart (1999) using PSU/NCAR MM5 show that the new method is quite accurate compared with a traditional method operationally used, owing to the feature of having less dependence on empirical parameters and approximations.