Informing health policy in Japan: A mixed-model estimation to compare the cost of illness of cervical cancer and endometrial cancer
Informing health policy in Japan: A mixed-model estimation to compare the cost of illness of cervical cancer and endometrial cancer
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DOI：
10.1111/jog.12923
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Hasegawa, Tomonori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hayata, Eijiro;Seto, Kanako;Hasegawa, Tomonori
目的本研究从经济负担的角度比较宫颈癌和子宫内膜癌，探讨影响今后经济负担变化的因素，为日本的健康政策提供参考。方法使用政府统计数据，使用疾病成本（COI）法估算了1996年至2011年的COI，并预测了2014年、2017年、2018年和2019年的COI。结果2011年宫颈癌的COI估计为1599亿日元，子宫内膜癌的COI估计为995亿日元。假设健康相关指标的当前趋势，预计2014年宫颈癌的COI将暂时下降，然后保持不变。同时，子宫内膜癌的COI预计在2014年暂时下降，然后恢复到上升趋势。结论宫颈癌和子宫内膜癌的COI预计在未来保持不变或增加。宫颈癌死亡的平均年龄预计将保持相对年轻，60多岁死亡的患者的高人力资本价值是未来COI没有下降的最可能解释。随着妇女对社会的参与程度不断提高，未来的调查委员会也可能会增加。关于子宫内膜癌，直接费用的增加，特别是住院费用的增加，是导致COI增加的可能因素。这是因为，由于医疗保健的进步，妇女的生存时间更长，因此接受护理的时间也更长。
AimThe objective of this study was to inform Japanese health policy by comparing cervical cancer and endometrial cancer from the standpoint of economic burden and examining factors affecting future changes in economic burden.MethodsUsing government-based nationwide statistical data, we used the cost-of-illness (COI) method to estimate the COI from 1996 to 2011 and predicted future estimates for 2014, 2017, and 2020.ResultsIn 2011, the COI of cervical cancer was estimated at 159.9 billion yen and that of endometrial cancer was estimated at 99.5 billion yen. Assuming the current trends in health-related indicators, the COI of cervical cancer is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014 and then remain constant. Meanwhile, the COI of endometrial cancer is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014 before returning to an upward trend.ConclusionThe COI of both cervical cancer and endometrial cancer is estimated to remain constant or increase in the future. The average age of death from cervical cancer is predicted to remain relatively young and the high human capital value of patients who die in their sixties is the most likely explanation for the lack of decrease in future COI. As women's participation in society continues to increase, the future COI may also increase. Regarding endometrial cancer, the increase in direct costs, particularly hospitalization costs, is a likely factor resulting in the increase in the COI. This is because women are surviving longer, and thus receiving care for longer durations, because of advancements in medical care.