A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY
A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY
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DOI：
10.1017/s0033822200034214
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Buck, C. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heaton, T. J.;Blackwell, P. G.;Buck, C. E.
本文提出了一种新的放射性碳标准曲线的建立方法。贝叶斯方法是专门开发的，以促进2009年更新的国际商定的（14）C校准曲线称为IntCal09和Marine09的建设。所采用的曲线估计方法使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗采样，特别是吉布斯内的大都市采样器，它提供了比过去使用的方法更好的灵活性和可靠性。特别是，该方法允许校准数据与（14）C测定的准确建模，所述测定产生于连续几个日历年沉积的材料，并且在其日历日期估计上表现出复杂的不确定性结构（产生于诸如摆动匹配和纹管计数的方法）。
This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed (14)C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation approach taken uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler, which offers improved flexibility and reliability over the approaches used in the past. In particular, the method allows accurate modeling of calibration data with (14)C determinations that arise from material deposited over several consecutive calendar years and that exhibit complex uncertainty structures on their calendar date estimates (arising from methods such as wiggle-matching and varve counting).