Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010
Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-015-1007-9
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Yost, Michael G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Isaksen, Tania Busch;Fenske, Richard A.;Yost, Michael G.
极端高温与死亡率增加有关，特别是在温带气候中。很少有流行病学研究在其分析中考虑了太平洋西北地区。这项研究量化了历史（1980-2010年5月至9月）在人口最多的太平洋西北郡，金郡，华盛顿热死亡率的关系。相对危险度（RR）分析被用来探讨热和全因死亡率之间的关系，在第99百分位数热天，而时间序列分析，使用分段线性模型拟合，被用来估计热强度对死亡率的影响，调整时间趋势。对于所有年龄段，所有原因，我们发现炎热天气与非炎热天气相比，死亡风险增加10%（1.10（95%置信区间（CI），1.06，1.14））。当考虑热对全因死亡率的强度效应时，我们发现高于36.0 A ℃的每单位湿度的死亡风险增加1.69%（95%CI，0.69，2.70）。使用两种类型的分析，按死因和年龄分层的死亡率产生了统计学显著性结果：全因、非创伤性、循环系统、心血管、脑血管和糖尿病死因。全因死亡率在统计学上显著受天气类型的影响。这些结果表明，热，表示为humidex，是与增加死亡率在炎热的日子，和风险增加与热的强度。虽然年龄是发现改变死亡风险的唯一个体水平特征，但45-64岁年龄组糖尿病相关死亡率的统计学显著增加表明，潜在的健康状况可能有助于这些风险。
Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 A degrees C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.