Optical observations and spatio-temporal projections of gelatinous zooplankton in the Fram Strait, a gateway to a changing Arctic Ocean
Optical observations and spatio-temporal projections of gelatinous zooplankton in the Fram Strait, a gateway to a changing Arctic Ocean
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弗拉姆海峡凝胶状浮游动物的光学观测和时空预测，这是通往不断变化的北冰洋的门户
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
C. Havermans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dmitrii Pantiukhin;G. Verhaegen;C. Kraan;K. Jerosch;P. Neitzel;H. Hoving;C. Havermans
全球变暖导致北冰洋发生深刻的环境变化，改变了群落的组成和结构。在北大西洋和北冰洋之间的过渡区弗拉姆海峡，由于大西洋暖水流入的增加，气候变化的影响尤其明显并加速。胶状浮游动物被称为主要捕食者，捕食多种猎物，在海洋生态系统中发挥着重要作用。由于对环境变化如何影响胶状浮游动物的了解不足，导致对北极生态系统未来状态的了解存在显着差距。我们分析了 2600 米深度以下胶状浮游动物的多样性和丰度，并利用拖曳式水下摄像机系统 PELAGIOS（远洋原位观测系统）获得的光学观测数据建立了第一个区域基线数据集。我们的数据估计了 20 个胶状浮游动物类群的丰度。最丰富的类群属于Rhopalonematidae科，主要由Aglantha digitale和Sminthea arctica组成，以及Physonectae亚目。利用观测数据，我们采用联合物种分布建模方法来更好地了解它们的分布模式。对解释变量的方差划分表明，深度和温度解释了大多数类群的大量变异，表明这些参数驱动多样性和分布。空间分布模型显示，预计边缘海冰区域的水母丰度和多样性最高。通过将该模型与环境变化的气候情景相结合，我们能够预测 2020 年至 2050 年（夏季）凝胶状群落的空间分布和组成的潜在变化。近期预测证实，随着气温进一步升高，弗拉姆海峡的凝胶状浮游动物群落将变得更加多样化，但更加丰富。在 Rhopalonematidae 科的分类群中，到 2050 年，整个水体中 Aglantha digitale 的丰度将增加 2%，而 Sminthea arctica 的丰度预计将减少 60%。现场观测和物种分布模型的结合显示出作为预测不断变化的海洋中凝胶状浮游动物群落变化的工具的前景。
Global warming causes profound environmental shifts in the Arctic Ocean, altering the composition and structure of communities. In the Fram Strait, a transitional zone between the North-Atlantic and Arctic Ocean, climate change effects are particularly pronounced and accelerated due to an increased inflow of warm Atlantic water. Gelatinous zooplankton are known as key predators, consuming a great variety of prey and playing an important role in marine ecosystems. Insufficient knowledge of how gelatinous zooplankton are affected by environmental change has resulted in a notable gap in the understanding of the future state of Arctic ecosystems. We analyzed the diversity and abundance of gelatinous zooplankton down to 2600 m depth and established the first regional baseline dataset using optical observations obtained by the towed underwater camera system PELAGIOS (Pelagic In situ Observation System). Our data estimate the abundance of 20 taxa of gelatinous zooplankton. The most abundant taxa belong to the family of Rhopalonematidae, mainly consisting of Aglantha digitale and Sminthea arctica, and the suborder Physonectae. Using the observational data, we employed a joint species distribution modelling approach to better understand their distributional patterns. Variance partitioning over the explanatory variables showed that depth and temperature explained a substantial amount of variation for most of the taxa, suggesting that these parameters drive diversity and distribution. Spatial distribution modelling revealed that the highest abundance and diversity of jellyfish are expected in the marginal sea-ice zones. By coupling the model with climate scenarios of environmental changes, we were able to project potential changes in the spatial distribution and composition of gelatinous communities from 2020 to 2050 (during the summer season). The near-future projections confirmed that with further temperature increases, gelatinous zooplankton communities in the Fram Strait would become less diverse but more abundant. Among taxa of the Rhopalonematidae family, the abundance of Aglantha digitale in the entire water column would increase by 2%, while a loss of up to 60% is to be expected for Sminthea arctica by 2050. The combination of in situ observations and species distribution modelling shows promise as a tool for predicting gelatinous zooplankton community shifts in a changing ocean.