The Market Structure and Price Transmission in the U.S. Corn Exporting Process
The Market Structure and Price Transmission in the U.S. Corn Exporting Process
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美国玉米出口过程中的市场结构和价格传导
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
Nakajima Toru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nakajima Toru
本文的目的是分析美国玉米出口产业的市场结构与从美国海湾出口港的玉米现货价格到日本进口港的CIF价格的价格传导之间的关系。基于非对称价格传导（APT）理论，通过对美国粮食出口公司市场份额的分析，揭示了美国粮食出口市场的结构，并运用门限自回归（TAR）模型和M（动量）-TAR模型对价格传导进行了估计。主要结论如下。1980年代和1990年代上半期，由于粮食出口公司的重组和合并，市场集中度相对较小。然而，在20世纪90年代后半期和21世纪初，市场竞争变得不那么激烈，市场集中度变得更大。利用TAR和M-TAR模型的推断结果表明，在20世纪90年代后半期和21世纪初的样本中，投入产出价差被挤压时的玉米价格传导比被拉伸时更快，即所谓的正APT，尽管在20世纪80年代和90年代前半期的样本中，玉米价格的传导是对称的。运用误差修正模型（ECM），结合TAR和M-TAR模型的推论结果，分析了影响CIF进口价格变动的因素。据透露，主要是3个月前的海湾现货价格和2-3个月前的海运费对到岸价格的变化影响最大。
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between the market structure of the corn exporting industry in the U.S. and the price transmission from corn cash prices at the export ports in the U.S. Gulf to CIF prices at the import ports in Japan. Based on the arguments of Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT), the market share of the U.S. grain exporting companies is investigated in order to illustrate the market structure, and the price transmission is estimated by applying the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR）Model and M (Momentum)-TAR Model. The main conclusions are as follows. The market concentration was relatively small in the 1980s and the first half of 1990s due to restructuring and consolidation of grain exporting companies. In the last half of 1990s and the 2000s, however, the market became less competitive and the market concentration got larger. The inference results using TAR and M-TAR models show that corn prices were transmitted more rapidly when the input-output price differences were squeezed than when they were stretched, which is so called positive APT, in the sample of the last half of 1990s and the 2000s, although the corn prices were transmitted symmetrically in the sample of the 1980s and the first half of 1990s. The Error Correction Model (ECM), in which the results of inferences by using TAR and M-TAR models were incorporated, was applied to find which factors have impacts on CIF import price changes. It was revealed that the Gulf cash prices mainly 3 months ago and the ocean freight rates 2-3 months ago most significantly affected the changes in CIF prices.