Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system
Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.2396
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Madec, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MacLachlan, C.;Arribas, A.;Madec, G.
英国气象局全球季节预报系统第5版（GloSea 5）。GloSea 5的升级包括提高大气（N216-0.7度）和海洋（0.25度）的水平分辨率，以及实施海洋和海冰条件下的3D-Var同化系统。GloSea 5显示了对主要变异模式的逐年预测的改进。在热带地区，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的预测有所改善，西太平洋的误差有所减少。在外热带方面，GloSea 5对北大西洋涛动和北极涛动的预报技巧和可靠性都达到了前所未有的水平。我们还发现有用的技能水平，在很大程度上决定了东亚夏季降水的西北太平洋副热带高压。
This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216-0.7 degrees) and the ocean (0.25 degrees), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.