Projection and uncertainty of the poleward range expansion of coral habitats in response to sea surface temperature warming: A multiple climate model study
Projection and uncertainty of the poleward range expansion of coral habitats in response to sea surface temperature warming: A multiple climate model study
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DOI：
10.3755/galaxea.13.11
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发表时间：
2011-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yumiko Yara;K. Oshima;M. Fujii;H. Yamano;Y. Yamanaka;N. Okada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yumiko Yara;K. Oshima;M. Fujii;H. Yamano;Y. Yamanaka;N. Okada
利用多种气候模式预测的21世纪月平均海表温度(SST)和基于SST的三种珊瑚生境向极范围扩展指数，定量地评估了SST变暖对日本附近海域珊瑚生境潜在北界的影响及其在全球变暖预测中的不确定性。由于全球变暖，温带珊瑚群落形成的时间不确定不少于30年，由于年代际气候变化，调节时间为±10年。据预测，到21世纪末，热带-亚热带和常温珊瑚群落以及日本附近海域的珊瑚产生量将向极地移动数百公里。热带-亚热带珊瑚群落、温带珊瑚群落和珊瑚产状的平均估计转移速度分别为1、2和4公里/年。模拟的速度比以前观察到的速度相对较慢(最高可达14公里/年；Yamano等人)。(2011年)，表明新的珊瑚群招募和珊瑚群落的建立之间存在时间上的滞后。因此，需要监测珊瑚对SST变暖的反应。监测和建模之间的合作将提高未来预测珊瑚面积变化的可靠性。这样的预测对于保护海洋生物多样性和制定人类社会适应全球变暖的计划非常重要。
Using projected monthly mean sea surface tem-perature (SST) in the 21st century obtained by multiple climate models and SST-based indices for the poleward range expansions of three types of coral habitats, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of SST warming on potential northern limit of coral habitats in seas close to Japan and their uncertainty in the global warming pro-jections. The uncertainty in the timing of temperate coral community formation due to global warming was no less than 30 years, with a modulation of ±10 years due to decadal climate variability. Tropical-subtropical and tem-perate coral communities and coral occurrence in seas close to Japan were predicted to shift poleward by a few hundred kilometers by the end of the 21st century. The average estimated speeds of the shifts were 1, 2, and 4 km/year for the tropical-subtropical coral community, temper-ate coral community, and coral occurrence, respectively. The simulated speeds were relatively slower than those previously observed (up to 14 km/year; Yamano et al. 2011), indicating that there are time lags between the new recruitment of coral colonies and the establishment of coral communities. Hence, monitoring of coral dynamics in response to SST warming is required. Collaboration between monitoring and modeling would enhance the reliability of future projections of changes in coral ha-bitats. Such projections are important for conserving marine biodiversity and developing plans for human societies to adapt to global warming.