MEASURING STATE DEPENDENCE IN INDIVIDUAL POVERTY HISTORIES WHEN THERE IS FEEDBACK TO EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
MEASURING STATE DEPENDENCE IN INDIVIDUAL POVERTY HISTORIES WHEN THERE IS FEEDBACK TO EMPLOYMENT STATUS AND HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
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DOI：
10.1002/jae.1081
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Biewen, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Biewen, Martin
本文认为，在贫困背景下，由于决定当代贫困状况的重要变量，特别是就业状况和家庭结构，可能会受到过去贫困结果的影响，所以在贫困背景下，通常在估计国家依赖模型时引用的严格外部性假设是不成立的。因此，开发了一个国家依赖模型，该模型明确考虑了过去贫困对未来就业和家庭结构结果可能产生的反馈效应。基于德国社会经济小组(GSOEP)数据的经验结果表明，确实存在这种反馈效应，如果不考虑它们，可能会导致对国家依赖效应的偏见估计。版权所有(C)2009 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
This paper argues that the assumption of strict exogeneity, which is Usually invoked in estimating models of state dependence with unobserved heterogeneity, is violated in the poverty context as important variables determining contemporaneous poverty status, in particular employment status and household composition, are likely to be influenced by past poverty outcomes. Therefore, a model of state dependence is developed that explicitly allows for possible feedback effects from past poverty to future employment and household composition Outcomes. Empirical results based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) suggest that there are indeed such feedback effects and that failure to take them into account may lead to biased estimates of the state dependence effect. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.