Mapping eastern equine encephalitis virus risk for white-tailed deer in Michigan.
Mapping eastern equine encephalitis virus risk for white-tailed deer in Michigan.
复制标题
绘制密歇根州白尾鹿东部马脑炎病毒风险图。
DOI：
10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.09.006
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Unnasch,ThomasR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Downs,JoniA;Hyzer,Garrett;Marion,Eric;Smith,ZacharyJ;Kelen,PatrickVander;Unnasch,ThomasR
东部马脑炎（EEE）是一种蚊子传播的病毒性疾病，对人类和马通常是致命的。包括白尾鹿和雀鸟在内的一些物种可以在感染EEE病毒（EEEV）后存活下来，并产生可使用实验室技术检测到的抗体。这样，从自由放养的白尾鹿收集的血清样本可用于监测该病毒在生态系统中的存在。本研究开发并测试了一个风险指数模型，该模型旨在预测密歇根州三个县地区白尾鹿的EEEV活动。该模型在从0.0（无可测量风险）到1.0（最高可能风险）的连续范围内评估EEEV风险。高风险栖息地被确定为白尾鹿喜欢的栖息地，这些栖息地也靠近丰富的湿地和低地森林，这些湿地和低地森林支持疾病媒介和宿主。该模型是在相关文献的基础上开发的，并在已知的出现神经症状的感染鹿的位置进行了测试。风险指数模型准确地预测了已知地点，这些地点的平均值等于研究区域的第94个百分位值。该模型生成的风险图可用于改进未来EEEV监测工作，即使用自由放养的白尾鹿的血清样本来监测病毒活性。或者，它可以集中针对可能有较高感染风险的猎鹿人的教育工作。
Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is often fatal to humans and horses. Some species including white-tailed deer and passerine birds can survive infection with the EEE virus (EEEV) and develop antibodies that can be detected using laboratory techniques. In this way, collected serum samples from free ranging white-tailed deer can be used to monitor the presence of the virus in ecosystems. This study developed and tested a risk index model designed to predict EEEV activity in white-tailed deer in a three-county area of Michigan. The model evaluates EEEV risk on a continuous scale from 0.0 (no measurable risk) to 1.0 (highest possible risk). High risk habitats are identified as those preferred by white-tailed deer that are also located in close proximity to an abundance of wetlands and lowland forests, which support disease vectors and hosts. The model was developed based on relevant literature and was tested with known locations of infected deer that showed neurological symptoms. The risk index model accurately predicted the known locations, with the mean value for those sites equal to the 94th percentile of values in the study area. The risk map produced by the model could be used refine future EEEV monitoring efforts that use serum samples from free-ranging white-tailed deer to monitor viral activity. Alternatively, it could be used focus educational efforts targeted toward deer hunters that may have elevated risks of infection.