Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes
Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-7997-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Nolan, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lamarque, J-F;Dentener, F.;Nolan, M.
我们提供了在大气化学和气候模式比较项目（ACCMIP）中计算的1850 - 2100年期间全球氮和硫酸盐沉积的多模式数据集。计算的沉积通量与表面湿沉积和冰芯测量值进行了比较。我们使用了一个新的2000-2002年湿沉积数据集，该数据集基于对现有区域网络数据质量的关键评估。我们表明，对于今天（2000年ACCMIP时间片），ACCMIP结果与以前发表的多模型评估相似。对于这个时间片，我们发现来自氮氧化物排放的多模式平均沉积约为50 Tg(N) yr(-1)，来自氨排放的60 Tg(N) yr(-1)，来自硫排放的83 Tg(S) yr（-1）。对1980年至2000年间变化的分析表明，美国的模式和测量值之间存在显著差异，但欧洲的差异较小。这一差异指向了1980年北美NH3排放量的潜在误传。根据冰芯记录，1850年的沉积通量与格陵兰冰芯非常吻合，但北半球的氮和硫两种物质在1850年至2000年之间的变化似乎被高估了。利用代表性浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, rcp）来确定与气候和大气化学相关的预估排放和浓度，我们发现在考虑的一些情景下，拉丁美洲、非洲和亚洲部分地区的区域性氮沉降在2100年将大幅增加。南亚的增幅尤其大，并且在所有情景中都可以看到，在一些情景中，2100年的数值是2000年的两倍多，在RCP 2.6和8.5中，区域到大陆尺度区域的平均数值达到100 - 1300毫克(N)米（-2）年（-1），与目前任何区域（大约2000年）的数值相比，高出30-50%。然而，所有区域的硫沉积速率在2100年都低于2000年。新的ACCMIP多模式沉积数据集提供了最先进的，一致的和评估的时间片（跨越1850-2100）全球网格化沉积场，用于广泛的气候和生态研究。
We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr(-1) from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr(-1) from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr(-1) from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching > 1300 mg(N) m(-2) yr(-1) averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, similar to 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multi-model deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.