Integrated assessment of sea-level rise adaptation strategies using a Bayesian decision network approach
Integrated assessment of sea-level rise adaptation strategies using a Bayesian decision network approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.10.010
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发表时间：
2013-06-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Giupponi, Carlo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Catenacci, Michela;Giupponi, Carlo
在关于全球环境变化可能产生的后果的广泛辩论中，海平面上升风险是一个具有挑战性的问题，至少有四个原因：潜在的严重影响，未来SLR预测的高度不确定性及其对环境和社会经济系统的影响，涉及的多尺度，以及需要在适应气候变化方面作出有效的管理决定。遗憾的是，机械模型普遍显示出有限的能力，无法适当详细说明复杂的沿海系统及其组成部分如何应对气候变化驱动因素和可能的适应举措。这里报告的研究开发了一个创新的方法框架，它集成了不同的研究领域参与和概率建模，决策分析-在一个协调的过程中，旨在决策支持。替代适应措施在东北部的泻湖意大利的有效性进行了评估，通过贝叶斯决策网络（BDN）模型，从选定的专家的判断后开发。该系统的概念图最初是在集体集思广益的背景下制定的，后来演变成BDN模型，从而提供了一个简化的量化结构。条件概率，量化的直接和间接的后果SLR的研究领域之间的因果关系，从专家得出。拟议的方法框架允许综合评估属于不同知识领域的因素和过程。此外，它还启动了一个有学科专家和决策者参与的知情和透明的参与进程，在这一进程中，主要风险因素与适应备选办法的预期效果一起得到考虑，有效处理和通报了SLR问题中普遍存在的不确定性。最后，该框架显示出进一步开发和应用的潜力，以考虑新的证据和/或不同的适应策略，它的结果足够灵活，可以通过和有效地重用在其他类似的案例研究。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) risks emerges as a challenging issue in the broader debate about the possible consequences of global environmental change for at least four reasons: the potentially serious impacts, the very high uncertainty regarding future projections of SLR and their effects on the environmental and socio-economic system, the multiple scales involved, and the need to take effective management decisions in terms of climate change adaptation. Unfortunately, mechanistic models generally demonstrated a limited ability to characterise in appropriate detail how complex coastal systems and their constituent parts may respond to climate change drivers and to possible adaptation initiatives. The research reported here develops an innovative methodological framework, which integrates different research areas participatory and probabilistic modelling, and decision analysis - within a coordinated process aimed at decision support. The effectiveness of alternative adaptation measures in a lagoon in north-east Italy is assessed by means of Bayesian Decision Network (BDN) models, developed upon judgments elicited from selected experts. A concept map of the system was first developed in a group brainstorming context and was later evolved into BDN models, thus providing a simplified quantitative structure. Conditional probabilities, quantifying the causal links between the direct and indirect consequences of SLR on the area of study, are elicited from the experts. The proposed methodological framework allows the integrated assessment of factors and processes belonging to different domains of knowledge. Moreover, it activates an informed and transparent participatory process involving disciplinary experts and policy makers, where the main risk factors are considered together with the expected effects of the adaptation options, with effective treatment and communication of the uncertainty pervading the SLR issue. Finally, the framework shows potentials for being further developed and applied to consider new evidences and/or different adaptation strategies, and it results sufficiently flexible to be adopted and effectively reused in other similar case studies. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.