Integrated modelling for flood risk mitigation in Romania: case study of the Timis–Bega river basin
Integrated modelling for flood risk mitigation in Romania: case study of the Timis–Bega river basin
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罗马尼亚洪水风险缓解综合模型：蒂米斯-贝加河流域案例研究
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
V. G. M. Quiroga
中科院分区：
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作者：
Ioana Popescu;A. Jonoski;S. V. Andel;E. Onyari;V. G. M. Quiroga
在罗马尼亚和荷兰合作项目框架内开发的洪水管理系统演示器中采用了综合洪水建模方法。开发的演示系统有两个目标：（a）必须迅速采取行动的极端条件下的运营水管理;（B）防洪措施和替代方案的离线分析和设计。本文介绍了实现第二个目标的应用方法和取得的成果。开发该系统的试点流域是蒂米斯-贝加河流域，其中蒂米斯河和贝加河被合并考虑。该系统的基础是通过联合开发和应用水文和水动力模型来模拟洪水生成和路由过程。水文模型采用HEC-HMS建模系统，一维水动力模型采用HEC-RAS建模系统，下游洪水分析和缓解措施及备选方案设计采用SOBEK二维模型建模系统。2D模型包括作为系统响应分析的一部分的故意溃堤的替代方案。所提出的分析是集中在一个特定的洪水事件，发生在2005年4月，这是由于堤决口沿着蒂米斯河。该模型的组合首先用于重建的淹没模式，导致在这次洪水事件。随后，该模型被用于测试防洪堤位于蒂米斯河下游部分的故意（计划）突破防洪堤的防洪减灾替代方案，这些防洪堤位于2005年洪水事件发生的同一位置，但在不同的时间相对于洪水过程线的到来。经论证的方法可使决策者分析物理系统的行为，并设计可能的预防和/或缓解措施。
An integrated flood modelling approach has been applied in a demonstrator of a flood management system, which was developed within the framework of a collaborative project between Romania and the Netherlands. The developed demonstrator system had two objectives: (a) operational water management under extreme conditions when actions have to be taken quickly; (b) off-line analysis and design of flood mitigation measures and alternatives. This article presents the applied approach and the achieved results for meeting the second objective. The pilot basin for the development of the system was the Timis–Bega river basin, in which the rivers Timis and Bega were considered jointly. The system is based on modelling the flood generation and routing processes by combined development and application of hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The modelling system HEC-HMS was used for the hydrological model, HEC-RAS for the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model and SOBEK for the two-dimensional (2D) model used for downstream flood analysis and design of mitigation measures and alternatives. The 2D model includes alternatives of deliberate dike breaching as part of the analysis of the system response. The analysis presented is concentrated on a specific flood event that occurred in April 2005, which occurred due to dike breaches along the Timis river. The combination of models is first used for reconstruction of inundation patterns resulting during this flood event. Subsequently the models were used for testing flood mitigation alternatives of deliberate (planned) breaches of flood protection dikes located in the downstream part of the Timis river at the same location where they had occurred during the 2005 flood event, but at different times with respect to the arrival of the flood hydrograph. The demonstrated approach can enable decision-makers to analyse the behaviour of the physical system and design possible preventive and/or mitigation measures.