DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY - A COMPARISON OF SIMPLE SCALABILITY, FIXED-SAMPLE, AND SEQUENTIAL-SAMPLING MODELS
DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY - A COMPARISON OF SIMPLE SCALABILITY, FIXED-SAMPLE, AND SEQUENTIAL-SAMPLING MODELS
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DOI：
10.1037/0278-7393.11.3.538
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发表时间：
1985-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
BUSEMEYER, JR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BUSEMEYER, JR
两项针对 12 名本科生和研究生的研究调查了部分不确定性下决策所涉及的认知过程。在这两项研究中，Ss 都被要求在产生单一已知收益的特定替代方案和产生正态分布收益的不确定替代方案之间进行选择。最初，这种分布是未知的，在实验一中，它是通过过去决策的反馈来了解的，而在实验二中，它是通过观察样本结果来了解的。在第一个实验中，使用响应截止日期来限制可用于做出决定的时间。在第二个实验中，使用观察成本来限制可以购买的样本数量。对不确定替代方案的均值和方差以及特定替代方案的值进行因子操作，以研究它们对选择概率、选择响应时间（实验 I）和购买的观察数量（实验 II）的联合影响。结果表明，应该更多地关注强调学习和记忆检索的决策理论（例如，固定采样模型和顺序采样模型），而不是仅仅关注确定性代数理论（例如，主观预期效用模型）。（30 参考）（PsycINFO 数据库记录 (c) 2016 APA，保留所有权利）
Two studies with 12 undergraduate and graduate students investigated the cognitive processes involved in decision making under partial uncertainty. In both studies, Ss were given a choice between a certain alternative that produced a single known payoff and an uncertain alternative that produced a normal distribution of payoffs. Initially this distribution was unknown, and in Exp I it was learned through feedback from past decisions, whereas in Exp II it was learned by observing sample outcomes. In the 1st experiment, a response deadline was used to limit the amount of time available for making a decision. In the 2nd experiment, an observation cost was used to limit the number of samples that could be purchased. The mean and variance of the uncertain alternative and the value of the certain alternative were factorially manipulated to study their joint effects on choice probability, choice response time (Exp I), and number of observations purchased (Exp II). Results suggest that more attention should be given to theories of decision making that emphasize learning and memory retrieval (eg, the fixed-and the sequential-sampling models) rather than focusing exclusively on deterministic-algebraic theories (eg, subjective expected utility models).(30 ref)(PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)