The usefulness of measuring spatial opportunity structures for tracking down offenders: A theoretical analysis of geographic offender profiling using simulation studies
The usefulness of measuring spatial opportunity structures for tracking down offenders: A theoretical analysis of geographic offender profiling using simulation studies
复制标题
测量空间机会结构对于追踪罪犯的有用性：使用模拟研究对犯罪者地理特征进行理论分析
DOI：
10.1080/10683160600558402
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W. Bernasco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Bernasco
摘要地理犯罪者侧写（GOP）是一种旨在根据犯罪者的犯罪地点确定其居住地的侦查活动。目前有助于GOP的工具假设犯罪的空间机会结构是统一的：它们假设潜在目标在空间中均匀分布，并且潜在目标在任何地方都具有同样的吸引力。此外，他们还假设，旅行距离是罪犯在选择犯罪地点时考虑的唯一标准。本文表明，一个扩展的目标选择模型的帮助下，GOP工具可以得到改善，如果他们测量和利用犯罪机会结构的空间变化。计算机模拟研究的结果说明了这一发现。
Abstract Geographic offender profiling (GOP) is an investigative activity aimed at locating an offender's residence on the basis of where he or she commits offences. Current tools that assist in GOP assume that spatial opportunity structures for crime are uniform: they assume that potential targets are evenly distributed in space, and that potential targets are equally attractive everywhere. In addition, they assume that travel distance is the only criterion that offenders consider when choosing a crime site. This paper demonstrates that, with the help of an extended target selection model, GOP tools could be improved if they measured and utilized spatial variation in criminal opportunity structures. The results of a computer simulation study illustrate this finding.