On the Cusp of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data
On the Cusp of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data
复制标题
DOI：
10.14512/gaia.21.2.10
复制
发表时间：
2012-01-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Turner, Graham M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Turner, Graham M.
经过作者 30 年的比较，40 年前产生的增长极限标准运行场景仍然与本文中更新的历史数据保持良好一致。这种情况会导致全球经济和环境崩溃，进而导致人口崩溃。尽管模型中的人口下降发生在 2030 年左右，死亡率逆转了当前趋势，并从 2020 年开始上升，但总体崩溃首先出现在 2015 年左右，此时人均工业产出开始急剧下降。鉴于这一迫在眉睫的时机，本文提出的另一个问题是，当前全球金融危机的经济困难是否可能与增长极限标准情景中的崩溃机制有关。特别是，尽管与债务相关的明显财务问题，当代石油峰值问题和对净能源或（能源）投资的能源回报的分析，支持崩溃背后的资源约束的增长极限模型。
The Limits to Growth standard run scenario produced 40 years ago continues to align well with historical data that has been updated in this paper, following a 30-year comparison by the author. The scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment, and subsequently the population. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030 - with death rates reversing contemporary trends and rising from 2020 onward - the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth standard run scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse, despite obvious financial problems associated with debt.